CryptoWeeklies / Reports / AVAX
Avalanche (AVAX) research
Every model we publish for Avalanche — valuation, risk and forecast — regenerated daily from market data. Free, no account.
Avalanche key levels today
The headline figure from each of Avalanche's reports, as published today. Each comes from the report linked beside it.
| Lifetime TWAP | $27 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| Gravity Risk (0-100) | 2.4 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| 200-week moving average | $21.04 | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Regression floor | $3.03 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Regression fair value | $7.13 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Regression ceiling | $20.80 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Moving-average risk score | 44.4% | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| 20-week SMA risk level (0-1) | 0.40 | 20-Week SMA Risk |
| Log regression deviation | +23.70% | Log Regression Fair Value |
| Forecast base target | $7.67 (68% range $3.04 to $19.31) | Price Forecast |
| Base scenario value by 2040 | $60 | Retirement CAGR Model |
Is Avalanche overvalued right now?
Avalanche trades 67% below its lifetime Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), with a Gravity Risk score of 2.4/100.
Where is Avalanche against its 200-week moving average?
Avalanche is 58.6% below its 200-week moving average of $21.04, at $8.71. Macro risk score 44.4%.
What is Avalanche's 20-week moving-average risk level?
Avalanche at $8.71 sits at risk level 0.40 on a 0-1 scale against its 20-week moving average.
Where is Avalanche against its DCA fair value?
Avalanche sits 22% above its regression fair value of $7.13.
Is Avalanche above or below its log regression fair value?
Avalanche is 24% above its log regression fair value.
Is Avalanche in accumulation or euphoria on the rainbow chart?
Avalanche is in bull phase expansion at $8.37.
What does the model forecast for the Avalanche price?
Avalanche model base target $7.67, with a 68% range of $3.04 to $19.31.
How much Avalanche do you need to retire?
In the base scenario (25% in growth years, with a drawdown every four years), Avalanche reaches $60 by 2040. A scenario, not a forecast.
Avalanche against other assets
- 200-Week Moving Average Risk — Composite SMA Risk, BTC pair
- Price Forecast — Price Forecast And Analysis, BTC pair
- TWAP / Gravity Risk — Gravity Analysis, BTC pair
- TWAP / Gravity Risk — Twap Gravity, BTC pair
- Valuation Bands — Valuation Bands, BTC pair
- 200-Week Moving Average Risk — Composite SMA Risk, ETH pair
- Price Forecast — Price Forecast And Analysis, ETH pair
- TWAP / Gravity Risk — Gravity Analysis, ETH pair
- TWAP / Gravity Risk — Twap Gravity, ETH pair
- Valuation Bands — Valuation Bands, ETH pair
How does Avalanche's reading today compare with its own history?
Across 120 weekly readings from 2024-07-14 to 2026-11-09, Avalanche's premium to its lifetime TWAP ranged from 78% below to 74% above, with a median of 37% below. Today it is 67% below. Against its regression fair value it ranged from 60% below to 159% above over 121 weeks from 2024-06-14 to 2026-11-09, with a median of 11% below; today it is 22% above.
How does Avalanche's Gravity Risk compare with other crypto assets?
Avalanche's Gravity Risk of 2.4 is the 38th highest of the 84 crypto assets we track, against a median of 2.0. The lowest reading today, 0, is shared by Cosmos, Axie Infinity, Flow, Flare, Ampleforth, Loopring, Mantra, Ronin and Theta Network, and the highest is Tron at 57.1. By premium to its lifetime TWAP, 67% below, it is the 37th highest of the 84, against a median of 75% below.
Avalanche's track record
Every weekly DCA reading published for Avalanche since mid-2024, set beside the price 13 and 26 weeks later: see the receipts.