CryptoWeeklies / Reports / ETH
Ethereum (ETH) research
Every model we publish for Ethereum — valuation, risk and forecast — regenerated daily from market data. Free, no account.
Ethereum key levels today
The headline figure from each of Ethereum's reports, as published today. Each comes from the report linked beside it.
| Lifetime TWAP | $1,737 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| Gravity Risk (0-100) | 18.1 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| 200-week moving average | $2,560.81 | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Regression floor | $1,159.51 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Regression fair value | $3,023.29 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Regression ceiling | $9,235.91 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Moving-average risk score | 35.4% | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| 20-week SMA risk level (0-1) | 0.38 | 20-Week SMA Risk |
| Log regression deviation | -28.91% | Log Regression Fair Value |
| Forecast base target | $2,170.41 (68% range $1,277.95 to $3,310.13) | Price Forecast |
| Base scenario value by 2040 | $14,710 | Retirement CAGR Model |
Is Ethereum overvalued right now?
Ethereum trades 23% above its lifetime Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), with a Gravity Risk score of 18.1/100.
Where is Ethereum against its 200-week moving average?
Ethereum is 16.9% below its 200-week moving average of $2,560.81, at $2,127.63. Macro risk score 35.4%.
What is Ethereum's 20-week moving-average risk level?
Ethereum at $2,131.42 sits at risk level 0.38 on a 0-1 scale against its 20-week moving average.
Where is Ethereum against its DCA fair value?
Ethereum sits 30% below its regression fair value of $3,023.29.
Is Ethereum above or below its log regression fair value?
Ethereum is 29% below its log regression fair value.
Is Ethereum in accumulation or euphoria on the rainbow chart?
Ethereum is in a bear market / accumulation phase at $2,235.53.
What does the model forecast for the Ethereum price?
Ethereum model base target $2,170.41, with a 68% range of $1,277.95 to $3,310.13.
How much Ethereum do you need to retire?
In the base scenario (25% in growth years, with a drawdown every four years), Ethereum reaches $14,710 by 2040. A scenario, not a forecast.
Ethereum against other assets
- 200-Week Moving Average Risk — Composite SMA Risk, BTC pair
- Price Forecast — Price Forecast And Analysis, BTC pair
- TWAP / Gravity Risk — Gravity Analysis, BTC pair
- TWAP / Gravity Risk — Twap Gravity, BTC pair
- Valuation Bands — BTC pair
How does Ethereum's reading today compare with its own history?
Across 120 weekly readings from 2024-07-14 to 2026-11-09, Ethereum's premium to its lifetime TWAP ranged from 8% below to 201% above, with a median of 68% above. Today it is 23% above. Against its regression fair value it ranged from 62% below to 26% above over 124 weeks from 2024-06-14 to 2026-11-09, with a median of 33% below; today it is 30% below.
How does Ethereum's Gravity Risk compare with other crypto assets?
Ethereum's Gravity Risk of 18.1 is the 7th highest of the 84 crypto assets we track, against a median of 2.0. The lowest reading today, 0, is shared by Cosmos, Axie Infinity, Flow, Flare, Ampleforth, Loopring, Mantra, Ronin and Theta Network, and the highest is Tron at 57.1. By premium to its lifetime TWAP, 23% above, it is the 7th highest of the 84, against a median of 75% below.
Ethereum's track record
Every weekly DCA reading published for Ethereum since mid-2024, set beside the price 13 and 26 weeks later: see the receipts.