Ethereum against its 20-week moving average: risk level

ETH Risk Matrix

$2,131.4299 | Risk: 0.38

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:53 UTC

📈 ETH Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $1,029.1308
Level 0.05 $1,173.4204
Level 0.10 $1,317.7100
Level 0.15 $1,461.9996
Level 0.20 $1,606.2891
Level 0.25 $1,750.5787
Level 0.30 $1,894.8683
Level 0.35 $2,039.1579
Level 0.40 $2,183.4474
Level 0.45 $2,327.7370
Level 0.50 $2,472.0266
Level 0.55 $2,616.3162
Level 0.60 $2,760.6057
Level 0.65 $2,904.8953
Level 0.70 $3,049.1849
Level 0.75 $3,193.4744
Level 0.80 $3,337.7640
Level 0.85 $3,482.0536
Level 0.90 $3,626.3432
Level 0.95 $3,770.6327
Level 1.00 $3,914.9223

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes ETH's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what ETH's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.