Avalanche against its 20-week moving average: risk level

AVAX Risk Matrix

$8.7170 | Risk: 0.40

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:53 UTC

📈 AVAX Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-3.7442
Level 0.05 $-2.1938
Level 0.10 $-0.6434
Level 0.15 $0.9070
Level 0.20 $2.4574
Level 0.25 $4.0079
Level 0.30 $5.5583
Level 0.35 $7.1087
Level 0.40 $8.6591
Level 0.45 $10.2095
Level 0.50 $11.7599
Level 0.55 $13.3103
Level 0.60 $14.8607
Level 0.65 $16.4111
Level 0.70 $17.9615
Level 0.75 $19.5119
Level 0.80 $21.0623
Level 0.85 $22.6127
Level 0.90 $24.1631
Level 0.95 $25.7135
Level 1.00 $27.2639

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes AVAX's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what AVAX's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.