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S&P 500 ETF (SPY) research
Every model we publish for S&P 500 ETF — valuation, risk and forecast — regenerated daily from market data. Free, no account.
S&P 500 ETF key levels today
The headline figure from each of S&P 500 ETF's reports, as published today. Each comes from the report linked beside it.
| 200-week TWAP | $563.61 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| Gravity Risk (0-100) | 69.1 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| 200-week moving average | $564.93 | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Regression ceiling | $783.89 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Valuation-band fair value | $776.35 | Valuation Bands |
| Detected market phase | Bear Market / Accumulation | Valuation Bands |
| Moving-average risk score | 64.6% | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Forecast base target | $801.72 (68% range $711.83 to $904.69) | Price Forecast |
Is S&P 500 ETF overvalued right now?
S&P 500 ETF trades 33% above its 200-week Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), with a Gravity Risk score of 69.1/100.
Where is S&P 500 ETF against its 200-week moving average?
S&P 500 ETF is 33.0% above its 200-week moving average of $564.93, at $751.51. Macro risk score 64.6%.
Where is S&P 500 ETF against its DCA fair value?
S&P 500 ETF sits 47% above its regression fair value.
What are S&P 500 ETF's fair value, floor and ceiling?
S&P 500 ETF fair value $776.35, with accumulation floor and euphoria ceiling.
What does the model forecast for the S&P 500 ETF price?
S&P 500 ETF model base target $801.72 by May 16, 2027, with a 68% range of $711.83 to $904.69.
How does S&P 500 ETF's reading today compare with its own history?
Across the 45 daily readings published from 2026-09-04 to 2026-11-09, S&P 500 ETF's moving-average risk score ranged from 63.7 to 85.5 (64.6 today). Against its regression fair value it ranged from 13% below to 57% above over 27 weeks from 2025-12-11 to 2026-11-09, with a median of 49% above; today it is 47% above.
How does S&P 500 ETF's Gravity Risk compare with other U.S. market ETFs?
S&P 500 ETF's Gravity Risk of 69.1 is the 7th lowest of the 15 U.S. market ETFs we track, against a median of 70.2. The lowest reading today is Communication Services Sector ETF at 52.5 and the highest is Financial Sector ETF at 88.1. By premium to its 200-week TWAP, 33% above, it is the 6th highest of the 15, against a median of 29% above.