S&P 500 ETF price forecast: what the model says

SPY SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$751.51

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$801.72

Bear 68%

$711.83

Bull 68%

$904.69

68% Range Width

24.1%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $704.95 $719.21 $733.17 $747.88 $762.92 $777.86 $793.80
2026-11-29 $684.48 $705.60 $726.53 $748.83 $771.90 $795.08 $820.12
2026-12-06 $672.11 $698.04 $723.94 $751.78 $780.83 $810.25 $842.32
2026-12-13 $665.35 $695.33 $725.49 $758.12 $792.43 $827.42 $865.84
2026-12-20 $660.12 $693.62 $727.54 $764.45 $803.50 $843.59 $887.88
2026-12-27 $654.12 $690.68 $727.89 $768.61 $811.93 $856.66 $906.35
2027-01-03 $651.19 $690.68 $731.07 $775.50 $823.02 $872.34 $927.42
2027-01-10 $643.20 $685.00 $727.96 $775.44 $826.45 $879.65 $939.36
2027-01-17 $634.10 $677.89 $723.09 $773.24 $827.38 $884.09 $948.03
2027-01-24 $629.51 $675.44 $723.04 $776.08 $833.58 $894.06 $962.56
2027-01-31 $624.99 $672.91 $722.76 $778.54 $839.24 $903.36 $976.28
2027-02-07 $618.97 $668.61 $720.43 $778.63 $842.22 $909.64 $986.62
2027-02-14 $608.86 $659.90 $713.39 $773.69 $839.83 $910.24 $990.96
2027-02-21 $603.63 $656.41 $711.94 $774.76 $843.95 $917.89 $1,003.02
2027-02-28 $600.17 $654.75 $712.38 $777.82 $850.16 $927.78 $1,017.49
2027-03-07 $599.54 $656.13 $716.08 $784.42 $860.24 $941.90 $1,036.64
2027-03-14 $599.04 $657.58 $719.81 $791.00 $870.26 $955.94 $1,055.73
2027-03-21 $597.03 $657.29 $721.56 $795.32 $877.74 $967.14 $1,071.64
2027-03-28 $597.20 $659.37 $725.89 $802.48 $888.37 $981.86 $1,091.52
2027-04-04 $592.33 $655.74 $723.81 $802.42 $890.85 $987.41 $1,101.08
2027-04-11 $586.07 $650.48 $719.82 $800.13 $890.76 $990.03 $1,107.26
2027-04-18 $583.64 $649.47 $720.53 $803.08 $896.53 $999.22 $1,120.87
2027-04-25 $581.05 $648.21 $720.92 $805.64 $901.82 $1,007.84 $1,133.84
2027-05-02 $576.88 $645.12 $719.19 $805.74 $904.28 $1,013.23 $1,143.10
2027-05-09 $568.91 $637.78 $712.75 $800.60 $900.93 $1,012.18 $1,145.22
2027-05-16 $565.29 $635.35 $711.83 $801.72 $904.69 $1,019.23 $1,156.67

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.