CryptoWeeklies / Reports / DOT
Polkadot (DOT) research
Every model we publish for Polkadot — valuation, risk and forecast — regenerated daily from market data. Free, no account.
Polkadot key levels today
The headline figure from each of Polkadot's reports, as published today. Each comes from the report linked beside it.
| Lifetime TWAP | $9.55 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| Gravity Risk (0-100) | 0.3 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| 200-week moving average | $4.41 | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Regression floor | $0.57 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Regression fair value | $0.95 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Regression ceiling | $2.23 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Moving-average risk score | 36.8% | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| 20-week SMA risk level (0-1) | 0.31 | 20-Week SMA Risk |
| Log regression deviation | -5.43% | Log Regression Fair Value |
| Forecast base target | $0.69 (68% range $0.36 to $1.30) | Price Forecast |
| Base scenario value by 2040 | $6.09 | Retirement CAGR Model |
Is Polkadot overvalued right now?
Polkadot trades 91% below its lifetime Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), with a Gravity Risk score of 0.3/100.
Where is Polkadot against its 200-week moving average?
Polkadot is 80.1% below its 200-week moving average of $4.41, at $0.88. Macro risk score 36.8%.
What is Polkadot's 20-week moving-average risk level?
Polkadot at $0.88 sits at risk level 0.31 on a 0-1 scale against its 20-week moving average.
Where is Polkadot against its DCA fair value?
Polkadot sits 7% below its regression fair value of $0.95.
Is Polkadot above or below its log regression fair value?
Polkadot is 5% below its log regression fair value.
Is Polkadot in accumulation or euphoria on the rainbow chart?
Polkadot is in a bear market / accumulation phase at $0.91.
What does the model forecast for the Polkadot price?
Polkadot model base target $0.69, with a 68% range of $0.36 to $1.30.
How much Polkadot do you need to retire?
In the base scenario (25% in growth years, with a drawdown every four years), Polkadot reaches $6.09 by 2040. A scenario, not a forecast.
Polkadot against other assets
- 200-Week Moving Average Risk — Composite SMA Risk, BTC pair
- Price Forecast — Price Forecast And Analysis, BTC pair
- TWAP / Gravity Risk — Gravity Analysis, BTC pair
- TWAP / Gravity Risk — Twap Gravity, BTC pair
- Valuation Bands — Valuation Bands, BTC pair
- 200-Week Moving Average Risk — Composite SMA Risk, ETH pair
- Price Forecast — Price Forecast And Analysis, ETH pair
- TWAP / Gravity Risk — Gravity Analysis, ETH pair
- TWAP / Gravity Risk — Twap Gravity, ETH pair
- Valuation Bands — Valuation Bands, ETH pair
How does Polkadot's reading today compare with its own history?
Across 120 weekly readings from 2024-07-14 to 2026-11-09, Polkadot's premium to its lifetime TWAP ranged from 92% below to 17% below, with a median of 69% below. Today it is 91% below. Against its regression fair value it ranged from 1185% below to 147% above over 121 weeks from 2024-06-28 to 2026-11-09, with a median of 6% above; today it is 7% below.
How does Polkadot's Gravity Risk compare with other crypto assets?
Polkadot's Gravity Risk of 0.3 is tied for the 21st lowest of the 84 crypto assets we track, against a median of 2.0. The lowest reading today, 0, is shared by Cosmos, Axie Infinity, Flow, Flare, Ampleforth, Loopring, Mantra, Ronin and Theta Network, and the highest is Tron at 57.1. By premium to its lifetime TWAP, 91% below, it is the 20th lowest of the 84, against a median of 75% below.
Polkadot's track record
Every weekly DCA reading published for Polkadot since mid-2024, set beside the price 13 and 26 weeks later: see the receipts.