Polkadot against its 20-week moving average: risk level

DOT Risk Matrix

$0.8819 | Risk: 0.31

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:53 UTC

📈 DOT Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.3436
Level 0.05 $-0.1435
Level 0.10 $0.0567
Level 0.15 $0.2568
Level 0.20 $0.4569
Level 0.25 $0.6570
Level 0.30 $0.8571
Level 0.35 $1.0572
Level 0.40 $1.2573
Level 0.45 $1.4575
Level 0.50 $1.6576
Level 0.55 $1.8577
Level 0.60 $2.0578
Level 0.65 $2.2579
Level 0.70 $2.4580
Level 0.75 $2.6581
Level 0.80 $2.8582
Level 0.85 $3.0584
Level 0.90 $3.2585
Level 0.95 $3.4586
Level 1.00 $3.6587

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes DOT's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what DOT's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.