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Bitcoin (BTC) research
Every model we publish for Bitcoin — valuation, risk and forecast — regenerated daily from market data. Free, no account.
Bitcoin key levels today
The headline figure from each of Bitcoin's reports, as published today. Each comes from the report linked beside it.
| Lifetime TWAP | $30,181 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| Gravity Risk (0-100) | 20.0 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| 200-week moving average | $68,021.57 | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Regression floor | $43,515.98 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Regression fair value | $76,996.00 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Regression ceiling | $188,596.05 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Moving-average risk score | 27.2% | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| 20-week SMA risk level (0-1) | 0.37 | 20-Week SMA Risk |
| Log regression deviation | +3.06% | Log Regression Fair Value |
| Forecast base target | $82,476.30 (68% range $58,276.07 to $113,913.71) | Price Forecast |
| Base scenario value by 2040 | $517,564 | Retirement CAGR Model |
Is Bitcoin overvalued right now?
Bitcoin trades 148% above its lifetime Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), with a Gravity Risk score of 20.0/100.
Where is Bitcoin against its 200-week moving average?
Bitcoin is 10.1% above its 200-week moving average of $68,021.57, at $74,884.25. Macro risk score 27.2%.
What is Bitcoin's 20-week moving-average risk level?
Bitcoin at $74,909.13 sits at risk level 0.37 on a 0-1 scale against its 20-week moving average.
Where is Bitcoin against its DCA fair value?
Bitcoin sits 3% below its regression fair value of $76,996.00.
Is Bitcoin above or below its log regression fair value?
Bitcoin is 3% above its log regression fair value.
Is Bitcoin in accumulation or euphoria on the rainbow chart?
Bitcoin is in a bear market / accumulation phase at $76,371.95.
What does the model forecast for the Bitcoin price?
Bitcoin model base target $82,476.30, with a 68% range of $58,276.07 to $113,913.71.
How much Bitcoin do you need to retire?
In the base scenario (25% in growth years, with a drawdown every four years), Bitcoin reaches $517,564 by 2040. A scenario, not a forecast.
Bitcoin against other assets
How does Bitcoin's reading today compare with its own history?
Across 120 weekly readings from 2024-07-14 to 2026-11-09, Bitcoin's premium to its lifetime TWAP ranged from 109% above to 443% above, with a median of 260% above. Today it is 148% above. Against its regression fair value it ranged from 32% below to 83% above over 120 weeks from 2024-06-18 to 2026-11-09, with a median of 1% above; today it is 3% below.
How does Bitcoin's Gravity Risk compare with other crypto assets?
Bitcoin's Gravity Risk of 20 is the 5th highest of the 84 crypto assets we track, against a median of 2.0. The lowest reading today, 0, is shared by Cosmos, Axie Infinity, Flow, Flare, Ampleforth, Loopring, Mantra, Ronin and Theta Network, and the highest is Tron at 57.1. By premium to its lifetime TWAP, 148% above, it is the 3rd highest of the 84, against a median of 75% below.
Bitcoin's track record
Every weekly DCA reading published for Bitcoin since mid-2024, set beside the price 13 and 26 weeks later: see the receipts.