Bitcoin against its 20-week moving average: risk level

BTC Risk Matrix

$74,909.1328 | Risk: 0.37

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 BTC Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $52,467.2673
Level 0.05 $55,494.1350
Level 0.10 $58,521.0027
Level 0.15 $61,547.8704
Level 0.20 $64,574.7381
Level 0.25 $67,601.6059
Level 0.30 $70,628.4736
Level 0.35 $73,655.3413
Level 0.40 $76,682.2090
Level 0.45 $79,709.0767
Level 0.50 $82,735.9444
Level 0.55 $85,762.8122
Level 0.60 $88,789.6799
Level 0.65 $91,816.5476
Level 0.70 $94,843.4153
Level 0.75 $97,870.2830
Level 0.80 $100,897.1508
Level 0.85 $103,924.0185
Level 0.90 $106,950.8862
Level 0.95 $109,977.7539
Level 1.00 $113,004.6216

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes BTC's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what BTC's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.