BTC/ETH Asset Valuation

LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 17:04 UTC | 23-WEEK HORIZON

68% Bear Target

Ξ 21.837187

23-Week Base Target

Ξ 36.929967

68% Bull Target

Ξ 67.742912

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a projection of BTC's valuation against Ethereum (ETH) using a Seasonal ARIMA model combined with a Box-Cox transformation to normalize historical volatility.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic rotation out of the asset and into ETH.
  • Base Case: The mathematical mean trajectory projected by the algorithm.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic outperformance against ETH.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Raw Data Matrix (ETH)

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 Ξ 28.711965 Ξ 30.978489 Ξ 33.364429 Ξ 36.068015 Ξ 39.052207 Ξ 42.251859 Ξ 45.950474
2026-11-29 Ξ 24.867225 Ξ 28.299648 Ξ 32.164049 Ξ 36.862626 Ξ 42.455247 Ξ 48.941625 Ξ 57.095895
2026-12-06 Ξ 21.977543 Ξ 25.877038 Ξ 30.461991 Ξ 36.302660 Ξ 43.619436 Ξ 52.582135 Ξ 64.547651
2026-12-13 Ξ 20.120217 Ξ 24.331578 Ξ 29.456238 Ξ 36.234071 Ξ 45.088293 Ξ 56.441075 Ξ 72.396534
2026-12-20 Ξ 18.735401 Ξ 23.171227 Ξ 28.728180 Ξ 36.318275 Ξ 46.602241 Ξ 60.332384 Ξ 80.545424
2026-12-27 Ξ 17.415747 Ξ 21.948753 Ξ 27.768485 Ξ 35.939248 Ξ 47.365381 Ξ 63.171975 Ξ 87.427076
2027-01-03 Ξ 16.482891 Ξ 21.136379 Ξ 27.247939 Ξ 36.052043 Ξ 48.737440 Ξ 66.893840 Ξ 95.903287
2027-01-10 Ξ 15.741246 Ξ 20.510393 Ξ 26.906880 Ξ 36.345832 Ξ 50.335840 Ξ 71.023106 Ξ 105.400979
2027-01-17 Ξ 15.004440 Ξ 19.831203 Ξ 26.428152 Ξ 36.377244 Ξ 51.509454 Ξ 74.571077 Ξ 114.335586
2027-01-24 Ξ 14.361159 Ξ 19.233948 Ξ 26.011849 Ξ 36.445242 Ξ 52.708049 Ξ 78.220676 Ξ 123.820447
2027-01-31 Ξ 13.725060 Ξ 18.603740 Ξ 25.499104 Ξ 36.314264 Ξ 53.558680 Ξ 81.352800 Ξ 132.749505
2027-02-07 Ξ 13.208689 Ξ 18.112228 Ξ 25.150811 Ξ 36.394534 Ξ 54.726775 Ξ 85.079420 Ξ 143.164457
2027-02-14 Ξ 12.751413 Ξ 17.701491 Ξ 24.925099 Ξ 36.693538 Ξ 56.350896 Ξ 89.870158 Ξ 156.504008
2027-02-21 Ξ 12.441016 Ξ 17.495817 Ξ 25.002165 Ξ 37.490419 Ξ 58.900259 Ξ 96.597546 Ξ 174.759818
2027-02-28 Ξ 11.828156 Ξ 16.797678 Ξ 24.275800 Ξ 36.918125 Ξ 59.031437 Ξ 98.952486 Ξ 184.527264
2027-03-07 Ξ 11.381701 Ξ 16.328221 Ξ 23.874749 Ξ 36.848065 Ξ 60.024621 Ξ 102.990765 Ξ 198.453914
2027-03-14 Ξ 11.004381 Ξ 15.944243 Ξ 23.583038 Ξ 36.934063 Ξ 61.292511 Ξ 107.672241 Ξ 214.557912
2027-03-21 Ξ 10.555396 Ξ 15.424393 Ξ 23.041588 Ξ 36.546968 Ξ 61.643364 Ξ 110.565302 Ξ 227.048755
2027-03-28 Ξ 10.240184 Ξ 15.100496 Ξ 22.799400 Ξ 36.662161 Ξ 62.941179 Ξ 115.506019 Ξ 245.281074
2027-04-04 Ξ 9.981690 Ξ 14.853972 Ξ 22.668989 Ξ 36.962208 Ξ 64.612536 Ξ 121.405335 Ξ 267.016499
2027-04-11 Ξ 9.689219 Ξ 14.537709 Ξ 22.403098 Ξ 36.994290 Ξ 65.750968 Ξ 126.282428 Ξ 287.080011
2027-04-18 Ξ 9.421451 Ξ 14.249242 Ξ 22.167888 Ξ 37.063738 Ξ 66.964297 Ξ 131.458336 Ξ 309.020222
2027-04-25 Ξ 9.134258 Ξ 13.915550 Ξ 21.837187 Ξ 36.929967 Ξ 67.742912 Ξ 135.731692 Ξ 329.336410