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Arweave (AR) research
Every model we publish for Arweave — valuation, risk and forecast — regenerated daily from market data. Free, no account.
Arweave key levels today
The headline figure from each of Arweave's reports, as published today. Each comes from the report linked beside it.
| Lifetime TWAP | $14 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| Gravity Risk (0-100) | 2.3 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| 200-week moving average | $10.63 | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Regression floor | $0.45 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Regression fair value | $1.49 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Regression ceiling | $4.97 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Moving-average risk score | 64.5% | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| 20-week SMA risk level (0-1) | 0.34 | 20-Week SMA Risk |
| Log regression deviation | +115.98% | Log Regression Fair Value |
| Forecast base target | $3.56 (68% range $1.37 to $9.52) | Price Forecast |
Is Arweave overvalued right now?
Arweave trades 77% below its lifetime Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), with a Gravity Risk score of 2.3/100.
Where is Arweave against its 200-week moving average?
Arweave is 69.4% below its 200-week moving average of $10.63, at $3.25. Macro risk score 64.5%.
What is Arweave's 20-week moving-average risk level?
Arweave at $3.25 sits at risk level 0.34 on a 0-1 scale against its 20-week moving average.
Where is Arweave against its DCA fair value?
Arweave sits 118% above its regression fair value of $1.49.
Is Arweave above or below its log regression fair value?
Arweave is 116% above its log regression fair value.
What does the model forecast for the Arweave price?
Arweave model base target $3.56, with a 68% range of $1.37 to $9.52.
Arweave against other assets
How does Arweave's reading today compare with its own history?
Across 120 weekly readings from 2024-07-14 to 2026-11-09, Arweave's premium to its lifetime TWAP ranged from 90% below to 77% above, with a median of 66% below. Today it is 77% below. Against its regression fair value it ranged from 76% below to 211% above over 120 weeks from 2024-07-07 to 2026-11-09, with a median of 12% below; today it is 118% above.
How does Arweave's Gravity Risk compare with other crypto assets?
Arweave's Gravity Risk of 2.3 is tied for the 39th highest of the 84 crypto assets we track, against a median of 2.0. The lowest reading today, 0, is shared by Cosmos, Axie Infinity, Flow, Flare, Ampleforth, Loopring, Mantra, Ronin and Theta Network, and the highest is Tron at 57.1. By premium to its lifetime TWAP, 77% below, it is the 41st lowest of the 84, against a median of 75% below.
Arweave's track record
Every weekly DCA reading published for Arweave since mid-2024, set beside the price 13 and 26 weeks later: see the receipts.