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Arweave (AR) track record: what the model published, and what followed
Every week since 2024-07-07, CryptoWeeklies has published Arweave's DCA regression band: where the price sat between the model's floor (0.0) and its ceiling (1.0). This page sets each of the 120 published readings, through 2026-11-09, beside the price 13 and 26 weeks later. It describes the past; it predicts nothing.
What followed each band Arweave was published in
| Band | Weeks | 13-wk median | 13-wk higher | 26-wk median | 26-wk higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.1 | 53 | -20% | 27% of 52 | -48% | 18% of 51 |
| 0.1–0.2 | 13 | -28% | 18% of 11 | -42% | 36% of 11 |
| 0.2–0.3 | 10 | +4% | 70% of 10 | -38% | 0% of 10 |
| 0.3–0.4 | 6 | +20% | 67% of 6 | 3 complete, too few | |
| 0.4–0.5 | 17 | -36% | 38% of 16 | -50% | 0% of 8 |
| 0.5–0.6 | 10 | -47% | 0% of 10 | -74% | 0% of 10 |
| 0.8–0.9 | 6 | 0 complete, too few | 0 complete, too few | ||
| 0.9–1.0 | 5 | 0 complete, too few | 0 complete, too few | ||
On the published record, in the 72 weeks it read below 0.3, Arweave was higher 26 weeks later 18% of the time, with a median change of -41%.
The extremes on Arweave's record
The hottest band on the weekly record was 0.9–1.0, first published on 2026-09-18 with Arweave at $3.59. That is too recent for a 26-week comparison; the latest published price is $3.25 on 2026-11-09. The coolest band on the weekly record was 0.0–0.1, first published on 2024-07-07 with Arweave at $22.32. Twenty-six weeks later it was $19.81 (-11%).
Against its lifetime time-weighted average price (TWAP), the published premium peaked at +76.6% on 2024-07-28 ($30.88) and was lowest at -90.0% on 2026-03-01 ($1.55). The latest weekly reading, 2026-11-09, is -76.9%.
The latest 12 weekly readings
| Published | Price | DCA band | Premium to lifetime TWAP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | $3.25 | 0.8–0.9 | -76.9% |
| 2026-11-08 | $3.09 | 0.8–0.9 | -78.0% |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.13 | 0.8–0.9 | -77.8% |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.37 | 0.8–0.9 | -76.2% |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.77 | 0.9–1.0 | -73.4% |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.31 | 0.9–1.0 | -69.7% |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.50 | 0.9–1.0 | -68.4% |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.70 | 0.9–1.0 | -67.0% |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.59 | 0.9–1.0 | -74.9% |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.74 | 0.8–0.9 | -80.8% |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.03 | 0.8–0.9 | -78.9% |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.74 | 0.4–0.5 | -88.0% |
How to read this
Each row counts weeks, and neighbouring weeks share most of their 26-week window, so a band the model read for twenty weeks in a row is closer to one episode than to twenty separate tests. A week counts toward a later change only if a reading was published within seven days of the 13- or 26-week date. The bands are the ones each week's page showed at the time, recovered from the site's own published history, and each price is the price on that same page. Bands with fewer than 4 complete windows are counted but not summarised.
See all of Arweave's live reports, how the DCA regression bands are built. Descriptive statistics on past prices, for education only; not financial advice.
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