Arweave against its 20-week moving average: risk level

AR Risk Matrix

$3.2517 | Risk: 0.34

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 AR Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-1.1430
Level 0.05 $-0.4943
Level 0.10 $0.1543
Level 0.15 $0.8030
Level 0.20 $1.4517
Level 0.25 $2.1003
Level 0.30 $2.7490
Level 0.35 $3.3976
Level 0.40 $4.0463
Level 0.45 $4.6949
Level 0.50 $5.3436
Level 0.55 $5.9923
Level 0.60 $6.6409
Level 0.65 $7.2896
Level 0.70 $7.9382
Level 0.75 $8.5869
Level 0.80 $9.2355
Level 0.85 $9.8842
Level 0.90 $10.5329
Level 0.95 $11.1815
Level 1.00 $11.8302

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes AR's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what AR's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.