BTC Risk Matrix

$80,892.6562 | Risk: 0.53

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:54 UTC

📈 BTC Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $49,174.6649
Level 0.05 $52,165.1914
Level 0.10 $55,155.7180
Level 0.15 $58,146.2446
Level 0.20 $61,136.7711
Level 0.25 $64,127.2977
Level 0.30 $67,117.8243
Level 0.35 $70,108.3508
Level 0.40 $73,098.8774
Level 0.45 $76,089.4040
Level 0.50 $79,079.9305
Level 0.55 $82,070.4571
Level 0.60 $85,060.9837
Level 0.65 $88,051.5103
Level 0.70 $91,042.0368
Level 0.75 $94,032.5634
Level 0.80 $97,023.0900
Level 0.85 $100,013.6165
Level 0.90 $103,004.1431
Level 0.95 $105,994.6697
Level 1.00 $108,985.1962

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes BTC's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what BTC's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.