BTC/ETH Asset Valuation

LAST UPDATE: 2026-06-12 02:16 UTC | 23-WEEK HORIZON

68% Bear Target

Ξ 22.178085

23-Week Base Target

Ξ 38.616273

68% Bull Target

Ξ 76.143180

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a projection of BTC's valuation against Ethereum (ETH) using a Seasonal ARIMA model combined with a Box-Cox transformation to normalize historical volatility.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic rotation out of the asset and into ETH.
  • Base Case: The mathematical mean trajectory projected by the algorithm.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic outperformance against ETH.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Raw Data Matrix (ETH)

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-06-21 Ξ 29.176120 Ξ 31.627584 Ξ 34.239781 Ξ 37.238875 Ξ 40.597453 Ξ 44.254611 Ξ 48.554216
2026-06-28 Ξ 24.507915 Ξ 28.037428 Ξ 32.081628 Ξ 37.099848 Ξ 43.217522 Ξ 50.509184 Ξ 59.973534
2026-07-05 Ξ 21.997716 Ξ 26.051803 Ξ 30.922482 Ξ 37.290944 Ξ 45.527890 Ξ 56.008504 Ξ 70.666327
2026-07-12 Ξ 19.958161 Ξ 24.253670 Ξ 29.601942 Ξ 36.882603 Ξ 46.749792 Ξ 59.988756 Ξ 79.701123
2026-07-19 Ξ 18.589844 Ξ 23.091963 Ξ 28.871951 Ξ 37.022720 Ξ 48.539492 Ξ 64.759225 Ξ 90.375410
2026-07-26 Ξ 17.528985 Ξ 22.195173 Ξ 28.349535 Ξ 37.306194 Ξ 50.451392 Ξ 69.818540 Ξ 102.177744
2026-08-02 Ξ 16.558309 Ξ 21.316228 Ξ 27.740692 Ξ 37.354485 Ξ 51.953497 Ξ 74.369716 Ξ 113.859461
2026-08-09 Ξ 15.721901 Ξ 20.542437 Ξ 27.190918 Ξ 37.396519 Ξ 53.392468 Ξ 78.931639 Ξ 126.289951
2026-08-16 Ξ 14.950281 Ξ 19.794814 Ξ 26.604669 Ξ 37.302323 Ξ 54.564822 Ξ 83.152069 Ξ 138.831728
2026-08-23 Ξ 14.335390 Ξ 19.221779 Ξ 26.216701 Ξ 37.453609 Ξ 56.111459 Ξ 88.156097 Ξ 153.777760
2026-08-30 Ξ 13.822224 Ξ 18.757521 Ξ 25.946515 Ξ 37.747382 Ξ 57.896638 Ξ 93.779765 Ξ 171.108690
2026-09-06 Ξ 13.502665 Ξ 18.553024 Ξ 26.044101 Ξ 38.623387 Ξ 60.750477 Ξ 101.734000 Ξ 195.205260
2026-09-13 Ξ 12.832467 Ξ 17.806580 Ξ 25.291696 Ξ 38.092513 Ξ 61.160879 Ξ 105.297350 Ξ 210.908528
2026-09-20 Ξ 12.292857 Ξ 17.234581 Ξ 24.784582 Ξ 37.948913 Ξ 62.296656 Ξ 110.558026 Ξ 232.389738
2026-09-27 Ξ 11.874009 Ξ 16.821110 Ξ 24.496166 Ξ 38.145846 Ξ 64.077901 Ξ 117.424511 Ξ 260.086750
2026-10-04 Ξ 11.365004 Ξ 16.236691 Ξ 23.890115 Ξ 37.725038 Ξ 64.603522 Ξ 121.662635 Ξ 282.079051
2026-10-11 Ξ 11.006724 Ξ 15.869911 Ξ 23.615199 Ξ 37.869427 Ξ 66.259472 Ξ 128.702476 Ξ 314.705230
2026-10-18 Ξ 10.702375 Ξ 15.571705 Ξ 23.432695 Ξ 38.161563 Ξ 68.243698 Ξ 136.863633 Ξ 354.134496
2026-10-25 Ξ 10.376270 Ξ 15.220319 Ξ 23.136405 Ξ 38.211330 Ξ 69.717081 Ξ 144.061509 Ξ 393.600920
2026-11-01 Ξ 10.071277 Ξ 14.887684 Ξ 22.850888 Ξ 38.254651 Ξ 71.176872 Ξ 151.508531 Ξ 437.588816
2026-11-08 Ξ 9.763236 Ξ 14.534786 Ξ 22.508646 Ξ 38.157573 Ξ 72.309958 Ξ 158.325906 Ξ 482.789823
2026-11-15 Ξ 9.514457 Ξ 14.269052 Ξ 22.303767 Ξ 38.313490 Ξ 74.036615 Ξ 167.131187 Ξ 541.384297
2026-11-22 Ξ 9.302497 Ξ 14.055211 Ξ 22.178085 Ξ 38.616273 Ξ 76.143180 Ξ 177.493637 Ξ 613.898333