BTC/ETH Asset Valuation

LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-19 00:04 UTC | 23-WEEK HORIZON

68% Bear Target

Ξ 19.068969

23-Week Base Target

Ξ 31.817552

68% Bull Target

Ξ 57.862006

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a projection of BTC's valuation against Ethereum (ETH) using a Seasonal ARIMA model combined with a Box-Cox transformation to normalize historical volatility.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic rotation out of the asset and into ETH.
  • Base Case: The mathematical mean trajectory projected by the algorithm.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic outperformance against ETH.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Raw Data Matrix (ETH)

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-27 Ξ 25.107035 Ξ 27.050084 Ξ 29.095938 Ξ 31.415016 Ξ 33.976190 Ξ 36.724268 Ξ 39.903851
2026-10-04 Ξ 21.194837 Ξ 24.027669 Ξ 27.212656 Ξ 31.081249 Ξ 35.683125 Ξ 41.019696 Ξ 47.731290
2026-10-11 Ξ 19.068040 Ξ 22.346395 Ξ 26.195509 Ξ 31.094785 Ξ 37.231671 Ξ 44.754944 Ξ 54.817577
2026-10-18 Ξ 17.624027 Ξ 21.197830 Ξ 25.539881 Ξ 31.278606 Ξ 38.778082 Ξ 48.409872 Ξ 61.992284
2026-10-25 Ξ 16.415028 Ξ 20.171123 Ξ 24.866177 Ξ 31.271543 Ξ 39.951613 Ξ 51.561727 Ξ 68.723988
2026-11-01 Ξ 15.438781 Ξ 19.327512 Ξ 24.310520 Ξ 31.302359 Ξ 41.090911 Ξ 54.677672 Ξ 75.661524
2026-11-08 Ξ 14.566357 Ξ 18.534493 Ξ 23.731555 Ξ 31.208353 Ξ 41.987836 Ξ 57.465630 Ξ 82.365837
2026-11-15 Ξ 13.842638 Ξ 17.876368 Ξ 23.265962 Ξ 31.200972 Ξ 42.959533 Ξ 60.393934 Ξ 89.567007
2026-11-22 Ξ 13.274046 Ξ 17.382372 Ξ 22.976225 Ξ 31.395451 Ξ 44.206260 Ξ 63.805863 Ξ 97.908194
2026-11-29 Ξ 12.917875 Ξ 17.151967 Ξ 23.026908 Ξ 32.068085 Ξ 46.202001 Ξ 68.538288 Ξ 109.031193
2026-12-06 Ξ 12.259783 Ξ 16.453120 Ξ 22.357223 Ξ 31.602579 Ξ 46.367084 Ξ 70.311646 Ξ 115.189689
2026-12-13 Ξ 11.781754 Ξ 15.982780 Ξ 21.985820 Ξ 31.554014 Ξ 47.172476 Ξ 73.192013 Ξ 123.699869
2026-12-20 Ξ 11.341458 Ξ 15.560504 Ξ 21.684025 Ξ 31.629605 Ξ 48.249933 Ξ 76.757539 Ξ 134.274325
2026-12-27 Ξ 10.818787 Ξ 14.994128 Ξ 21.139522 Ξ 31.291708 Ξ 48.624492 Ξ 79.163922 Ξ 143.049248
2027-01-03 Ξ 10.427512 Ξ 14.600842 Ξ 20.831385 Ξ 31.305341 Ξ 49.588326 Ξ 82.721078 Ξ 154.747986
2027-01-10 Ξ 10.108154 Ξ 14.297464 Ξ 20.640596 Ξ 31.490759 Ξ 50.857266 Ξ 86.972029 Ξ 168.663304
2027-01-17 Ξ 9.769923 Ξ 13.946315 Ξ 20.351476 Ξ 31.483633 Ξ 51.767029 Ξ 90.616493 Ξ 181.872358
2027-01-24 Ξ 9.464563 Ξ 13.630075 Ξ 20.098076 Ξ 31.514717 Ξ 52.740380 Ξ 94.484798 Ξ 196.331381
2027-01-31 Ξ 9.154402 Ξ 13.290747 Ξ 19.787184 Ξ 31.419894 Ξ 53.459362 Ξ 97.902217 Ξ 210.352325
2027-02-07 Ξ 8.882290 Ξ 12.998758 Ξ 19.537045 Ξ 31.412450 Ξ 54.339604 Ξ 101.753201 Ξ 226.273870
2027-02-14 Ξ 8.666313 Ξ 12.786475 Ξ 19.406584 Ξ 31.608619 Ξ 55.632926 Ξ 106.650813 Ξ 246.078665
2027-02-21 Ξ 8.551278 Ξ 12.731857 Ξ 19.536261 Ξ 32.287125 Ξ 57.956909 Ξ 114.153921 Ξ 275.045714
2027-02-28 Ξ 8.238733 Ξ 12.339010 Ξ 19.068969 Ξ 31.817552 Ξ 57.862006 Ξ 116.046740 Ξ 287.953228