68% Bear Case

$49,703.77

23-Week Base Target

$71,643.76

68% Bull Case

$100,721.00

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 54897.25 58117.35 61342.33 64812.02 68436.87 72109.51 76109.32
2026-06-21 49881.35 54813.85 59897.92 65521.68 71559.89 77840.10 84857.57
2026-06-28 46252.22 52364.86 58810.91 66098.17 74090.11 82570.79 92233.01
2026-07-05 43115.46 50070.80 57548.90 66158.79 75769.02 86136.73 98137.61
2026-07-12 40584.90 48201.72 56531.45 66275.63 77318.58 89401.56 103577.65
2026-07-19 38144.81 46250.17 55253.48 65939.21 78216.68 91821.93 107976.84
2026-07-26 36504.71 45095.21 54772.10 66406.63 79938.02 95101.26 113296.56
2026-08-02 34732.47 43679.58 53893.85 66325.84 80951.53 97513.48 117583.02
2026-08-09 33650.21 43010.79 53827.16 67137.80 82958.66 101041.60 123145.31
2026-08-16 32562.72 42273.80 53625.76 67742.61 84685.35 104221.10 128295.78
2026-08-23 31120.33 41038.66 52768.11 67507.51 85368.51 106142.07 131947.82
2026-08-30 30031.01 40188.01 52330.66 67738.24 86576.05 108661.16 136298.44
2026-09-06 29401.67 39893.00 52563.51 68787.27 88787.84 112409.81 142171.15
2026-09-13 28674.34 39443.46 52581.07 69553.89 90648.55 115743.08 147568.95
2026-09-20 27922.08 38929.41 52490.64 70163.95 92303.03 118824.30 152674.09
2026-09-27 26965.43 38114.45 51988.33 70228.82 93260.30 121044.12 156731.17
2026-10-04 26092.61 37375.63 51553.11 70351.69 94269.46 123316.25 160852.36
2026-10-11 25060.81 36390.83 50769.00 69998.89 94654.91 124801.06 163995.96
2026-10-18 24446.78 35939.62 50655.15 70489.19 96095.80 127593.04 168766.79
2026-10-25 23625.49 35181.07 50114.68 70404.45 96786.23 129437.96 172358.11
2026-11-01 23227.72 34983.15 50299.53 71256.05 98674.52 132792.44 177856.41
2026-11-08 22763.64 34677.09 50326.86 71890.31 100277.85 135790.80 182921.61
2026-11-15 21979.05 33901.62 49703.77 71643.76 100721.00 137307.11 186112.11