AVAX Risk Matrix

$8.1950 | Risk: 0.40

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:53 UTC

📈 AVAX Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-3.6554
Level 0.05 $-2.1867
Level 0.10 $-0.7179
Level 0.15 $0.7508
Level 0.20 $2.2196
Level 0.25 $3.6883
Level 0.30 $5.1570
Level 0.35 $6.6258
Level 0.40 $8.0945
Level 0.45 $9.5633
Level 0.50 $11.0320
Level 0.55 $12.5007
Level 0.60 $13.9695
Level 0.65 $15.4382
Level 0.70 $16.9070
Level 0.75 $18.3757
Level 0.80 $19.8445
Level 0.85 $21.3132
Level 0.90 $22.7819
Level 0.95 $24.2507
Level 1.00 $25.7194

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes AVAX's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what AVAX's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.