AVAX/BTC Asset Valuation

LAST UPDATE: 2026-06-12 02:17 UTC | 23-WEEK HORIZON

68% Bear Target

₿ 0.00004318

23-Week Base Target

₿ 0.00008729

68% Bull Target

₿ 0.00017916

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a projection of AVAX's valuation against Bitcoin (BTC) using a Seasonal ARIMA model combined with a Box-Cox transformation to normalize historical volatility.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic rotation out of the asset and into BTC.
  • Base Case: The mathematical mean trajectory projected by the algorithm.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic outperformance against BTC.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Raw Data Matrix (BTC)

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-06-21 ₿ 0.00007763 ₿ 0.00008560 ₿ 0.00009403 ₿ 0.00010361 ₿ 0.00011421 ₿ 0.00012556 ₿ 0.00013865
2026-06-28 ₿ 0.00006311 ₿ 0.00007479 ₿ 0.00008808 ₿ 0.00010433 ₿ 0.00012367 ₿ 0.00014601 ₿ 0.00017379
2026-07-05 ₿ 0.00005306 ₿ 0.00006627 ₿ 0.00008211 ₿ 0.00010255 ₿ 0.00012827 ₿ 0.00015963 ₿ 0.00020087
2026-07-12 ₿ 0.00004663 ₿ 0.00006075 ₿ 0.00007844 ₿ 0.00010227 ₿ 0.00013362 ₿ 0.00017358 ₿ 0.00022860
2026-07-19 ₿ 0.00004102 ₿ 0.00005541 ₿ 0.00007409 ₿ 0.00010021 ₿ 0.00013592 ₿ 0.00018321 ₿ 0.00025093
2026-07-26 ₿ 0.00003711 ₿ 0.00005176 ₿ 0.00007141 ₿ 0.00009980 ₿ 0.00013996 ₿ 0.00019500 ₿ 0.00027664
2026-08-02 ₿ 0.00003353 ₿ 0.00004814 ₿ 0.00006831 ₿ 0.00009835 ₿ 0.00014217 ₿ 0.00020412 ₿ 0.00029900
2026-08-09 ₿ 0.00003039 ₿ 0.00004479 ₿ 0.00006524 ₿ 0.00009652 ₿ 0.00014348 ₿ 0.00021179 ₿ 0.00031957
2026-08-16 ₿ 0.00002843 ₿ 0.00004296 ₿ 0.00006411 ₿ 0.00009733 ₿ 0.00014855 ₿ 0.00022512 ₿ 0.00034937
2026-08-23 ₿ 0.00002687 ₿ 0.00004157 ₿ 0.00006349 ₿ 0.00009876 ₿ 0.00015454 ₿ 0.00024010 ₿ 0.00038270
2026-08-30 ₿ 0.00002460 ₿ 0.00003889 ₿ 0.00006067 ₿ 0.00009653 ₿ 0.00015460 ₿ 0.00024582 ₿ 0.00040167
2026-09-06 ₿ 0.00002224 ₿ 0.00003589 ₿ 0.00005712 ₿ 0.00009283 ₿ 0.00015196 ₿ 0.00024694 ₿ 0.00041307
2026-09-13 ₿ 0.00002091 ₿ 0.00003448 ₿ 0.00005609 ₿ 0.00009328 ₿ 0.00015636 ₿ 0.00026021 ₿ 0.00044655
2026-09-20 ₿ 0.00001976 ₿ 0.00003332 ₿ 0.00005538 ₿ 0.00009426 ₿ 0.00016181 ₿ 0.00027578 ₿ 0.00048560
2026-09-27 ₿ 0.00001825 ₿ 0.00003141 ₿ 0.00005330 ₿ 0.00009271 ₿ 0.00016278 ₿ 0.00028377 ₿ 0.00051200
2026-10-04 ₿ 0.00001712 ₿ 0.00003007 ₿ 0.00005204 ₿ 0.00009246 ₿ 0.00016593 ₿ 0.00029570 ₿ 0.00054637
2026-10-11 ₿ 0.00001583 ₿ 0.00002834 ₿ 0.00004999 ₿ 0.00009061 ₿ 0.00016603 ₿ 0.00030213 ₿ 0.00057104
2026-10-18 ₿ 0.00001490 ₿ 0.00002717 ₿ 0.00004881 ₿ 0.00009024 ₿ 0.00016875 ₿ 0.00031345 ₿ 0.00060575
2026-10-25 ₿ 0.00001391 ₿ 0.00002582 ₿ 0.00004721 ₿ 0.00008893 ₿ 0.00016958 ₿ 0.00032126 ₿ 0.00063426
2026-11-01 ₿ 0.00001296 ₿ 0.00002447 ₿ 0.00004550 ₿ 0.00008728 ₿ 0.00016961 ₿ 0.00032747 ₿ 0.00066004
2026-11-08 ₿ 0.00001241 ₿ 0.00002382 ₿ 0.00004506 ₿ 0.00008801 ₿ 0.00017429 ₿ 0.00034299 ₿ 0.00070580
2026-11-15 ₿ 0.00001196 ₿ 0.00002335 ₿ 0.00004491 ₿ 0.00008930 ₿ 0.00018014 ₿ 0.00036121 ₿ 0.00075863
2026-11-22 ₿ 0.00001115 ₿ 0.00002211 ₿ 0.00004318 ₿ 0.00008729 ₿ 0.00017916 ₿ 0.00036559 ₿ 0.00078262