68% Bear Case

$1.86

23-Week Base Target

$5.61

68% Bull Case

$15.84

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 4.49 5.20 5.98 6.90 7.95 9.11 10.49
2026-06-21 3.35 4.32 5.51 7.04 8.97 11.31 14.36
2026-06-28 2.63 3.70 5.10 7.06 9.71 13.16 17.98
2026-07-05 2.13 3.22 4.74 7.01 10.26 14.75 21.37
2026-07-12 1.73 2.79 4.35 6.80 10.52 15.90 24.23
2026-07-19 1.42 2.42 3.98 6.55 10.63 16.80 26.78
2026-07-26 1.18 2.13 3.67 6.34 10.76 17.72 29.38
2026-08-02 1.00 1.90 3.42 6.17 10.91 18.64 32.08
2026-08-09 0.90 1.78 3.35 6.28 11.51 20.35 36.18
2026-08-16 0.82 1.69 3.30 6.42 12.19 22.22 40.71
2026-08-23 0.70 1.51 3.06 6.18 12.14 22.83 43.12
2026-08-30 0.60 1.36 2.87 6.01 12.19 23.60 45.87
2026-09-06 0.56 1.31 2.88 6.23 13.06 26.04 52.05
2026-09-13 0.51 1.25 2.84 6.38 13.83 28.41 58.44
2026-09-20 0.45 1.16 2.75 6.41 14.35 30.34 64.18
2026-09-27 0.40 1.08 2.64 6.36 14.70 31.99 69.53
2026-10-04 0.35 0.97 2.47 6.17 14.73 32.96 73.60
2026-10-11 0.30 0.87 2.30 5.94 14.63 33.64 77.10
2026-10-18 0.26 0.78 2.15 5.75 14.59 34.46 80.99
2026-10-25 0.22 0.71 2.03 5.60 14.62 35.41 85.24
2026-11-01 0.21 0.68 2.01 5.70 15.27 37.82 93.00
2026-11-08 0.19 0.66 2.00 5.83 16.01 40.53 101.68
2026-11-15 0.17 0.60 1.86 5.61 15.84 41.04 105.31