AVAX/ETH Asset Valuation

LAST UPDATE: 2026-06-12 02:16 UTC | 23-WEEK HORIZON

68% Bear Target

Ξ 0.001919

23-Week Base Target

Ξ 0.003485

68% Bull Target

Ξ 0.006574

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a projection of AVAX's valuation against Ethereum (ETH) using a Seasonal ARIMA model combined with a Box-Cox transformation to normalize historical volatility.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic rotation out of the asset and into ETH.
  • Base Case: The mathematical mean trajectory projected by the algorithm.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic outperformance against ETH.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Raw Data Matrix (ETH)

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-06-21 Ξ 0.002949 Ξ 0.003238 Ξ 0.003544 Ξ 0.003893 Ξ 0.004281 Ξ 0.004698 Ξ 0.005181
2026-06-28 Ξ 0.002476 Ξ 0.002886 Ξ 0.003350 Ξ 0.003915 Ξ 0.004587 Ξ 0.005363 Ξ 0.006330
2026-07-05 Ξ 0.002150 Ξ 0.002611 Ξ 0.003156 Ξ 0.003852 Ξ 0.004720 Ξ 0.005773 Ξ 0.007156
2026-07-12 Ξ 0.001918 Ξ 0.002406 Ξ 0.003005 Ξ 0.003798 Ξ 0.004829 Ξ 0.006130 Ξ 0.007914
2026-07-19 Ξ 0.001738 Ξ 0.002242 Ξ 0.002879 Ξ 0.003751 Ξ 0.004922 Ξ 0.006455 Ξ 0.008636
2026-07-26 Ξ 0.001617 Ξ 0.002139 Ξ 0.002817 Ξ 0.003772 Ξ 0.005095 Ξ 0.006884 Ξ 0.009520
2026-08-02 Ξ 0.001496 Ξ 0.002022 Ξ 0.002724 Ξ 0.003738 Ξ 0.005183 Ξ 0.007194 Ξ 0.010252
2026-08-09 Ξ 0.001388 Ξ 0.001914 Ξ 0.002632 Ξ 0.003693 Ξ 0.005246 Ξ 0.007466 Ξ 0.010942
2026-08-16 Ξ 0.001315 Ξ 0.001850 Ξ 0.002593 Ξ 0.003719 Ξ 0.005406 Ξ 0.007883 Ξ 0.011873
2026-08-23 Ξ 0.001268 Ξ 0.001816 Ξ 0.002594 Ξ 0.003799 Ξ 0.005648 Ξ 0.008433 Ξ 0.013046
2026-08-30 Ξ 0.001189 Ξ 0.001730 Ξ 0.002514 Ξ 0.003750 Ξ 0.005689 Ξ 0.008676 Ξ 0.013751
2026-09-06 Ξ 0.001104 Ξ 0.001631 Ξ 0.002406 Ξ 0.003651 Ξ 0.005643 Ξ 0.008776 Ξ 0.014225
2026-09-13 Ξ 0.001038 Ξ 0.001558 Ξ 0.002338 Ξ 0.003616 Ξ 0.005704 Ξ 0.009069 Ξ 0.015075
2026-09-20 Ξ 0.000990 Ξ 0.001511 Ξ 0.002307 Ξ 0.003637 Ξ 0.005861 Ξ 0.009532 Ξ 0.016265
2026-09-27 Ξ 0.000928 Ξ 0.001438 Ξ 0.002230 Ξ 0.003578 Ξ 0.005879 Ξ 0.009762 Ξ 0.017063
2026-10-04 Ξ 0.000874 Ξ 0.001374 Ξ 0.002162 Ξ 0.003529 Ξ 0.005908 Ξ 0.010009 Ξ 0.017909
2026-10-11 Ξ 0.000826 Ξ 0.001316 Ξ 0.002101 Ξ 0.003485 Ξ 0.005940 Ξ 0.010262 Ξ 0.018785
2026-10-18 Ξ 0.000794 Ξ 0.001283 Ξ 0.002078 Ξ 0.003505 Ξ 0.006085 Ξ 0.010723 Ξ 0.020096
2026-10-25 Ξ 0.000755 Ξ 0.001235 Ξ 0.002028 Ξ 0.003473 Ξ 0.006134 Ξ 0.011013 Ξ 0.021095
2026-11-01 Ξ 0.000717 Ξ 0.001188 Ξ 0.001975 Ξ 0.003432 Ξ 0.006162 Ξ 0.011262 Ξ 0.022034
2026-11-08 Ξ 0.000693 Ξ 0.001162 Ξ 0.001959 Ξ 0.003456 Ξ 0.006311 Ξ 0.011752 Ξ 0.023510
2026-11-15 Ξ 0.000679 Ξ 0.001153 Ξ 0.001970 Ξ 0.003529 Ξ 0.006559 Ξ 0.012453 Ξ 0.025495
2026-11-22 Ξ 0.000647 Ξ 0.001111 Ξ 0.001919 Ξ 0.003485 Ξ 0.006574 Ξ 0.012690 Ξ 0.026502