XRP Risk Matrix

$1.3962 | Risk: 0.38

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:53 UTC

📈 XRP Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $0.6434
Level 0.05 $0.7413
Level 0.10 $0.8393
Level 0.15 $0.9372
Level 0.20 $1.0352
Level 0.25 $1.1331
Level 0.30 $1.2310
Level 0.35 $1.3290
Level 0.40 $1.4269
Level 0.45 $1.5249
Level 0.50 $1.6228
Level 0.55 $1.7208
Level 0.60 $1.8187
Level 0.65 $1.9167
Level 0.70 $2.0146
Level 0.75 $2.1126
Level 0.80 $2.2105
Level 0.85 $2.3084
Level 0.90 $2.4064
Level 0.95 $2.5043
Level 1.00 $2.6023

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes XRP's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what XRP's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.