68% Bear Case

$0.51

23-Week Base Target

$1.36

68% Bull Case

$6.64

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of XRP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.78 0.91 1.06 1.25 1.49 1.78 2.19
2026-06-21 0.61 0.77 0.98 1.28 1.74 2.42 3.61
2026-06-28 0.51 0.67 0.90 1.28 1.92 3.04 5.47
2026-07-05 0.43 0.59 0.84 1.26 2.04 3.62 7.84
2026-07-12 0.39 0.55 0.80 1.27 2.22 4.43 11.88
2026-07-19 0.35 0.51 0.78 1.30 2.45 5.50 19.08
2026-07-26 0.32 0.48 0.74 1.29 2.60 6.54 29.83
2026-08-02 0.29 0.44 0.70 1.26 2.68 7.46 45.19
2026-08-09 0.28 0.42 0.69 1.29 2.94 9.32 88.69
2026-08-16 0.26 0.40 0.67 1.30 3.12 11.20 181.03
2026-08-23 0.24 0.38 0.64 1.27 3.20 12.70 363.18
2026-08-30 0.23 0.36 0.62 1.26 3.34 14.97 1078.45
2026-09-06 0.22 0.36 0.63 1.34 3.83 21.26 98241.15
2026-09-13 0.21 0.35 0.63 1.38 4.24 28.92 NaN
2026-09-20 0.20 0.33 0.61 1.37 4.46 36.22 NaN
2026-09-27 0.19 0.32 0.59 1.35 4.56 42.91 NaN
2026-10-04 0.18 0.31 0.58 1.36 4.87 57.12 NaN
2026-10-11 0.18 0.30 0.57 1.39 5.33 83.23 NaN
2026-10-18 0.17 0.29 0.56 1.39 5.59 111.73 NaN
2026-10-25 0.16 0.28 0.54 1.35 5.66 136.60 NaN
2026-11-01 0.16 0.27 0.54 1.39 6.22 230.59 NaN
2026-11-08 0.15 0.27 0.53 1.39 6.58 362.79 NaN
2026-11-15 0.14 0.25 0.51 1.36 6.64 480.55 NaN