SOL Risk Matrix

$112.7500 | Risk: 0.46

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:53 UTC

📈 SOL Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $20.3525
Level 0.05 $30.3639
Level 0.10 $40.3752
Level 0.15 $50.3866
Level 0.20 $60.3979
Level 0.25 $70.4093
Level 0.30 $80.4206
Level 0.35 $90.4320
Level 0.40 $100.4433
Level 0.45 $110.4547
Level 0.50 $120.4660
Level 0.55 $130.4774
Level 0.60 $140.4887
Level 0.65 $150.5001
Level 0.70 $160.5114
Level 0.75 $170.5228
Level 0.80 $180.5341
Level 0.85 $190.5455
Level 0.90 $200.5568
Level 0.95 $210.5682
Level 1.00 $220.5796

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes SOL's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what SOL's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.