SOL/BTC Asset Valuation

LAST UPDATE: 2026-06-12 02:17 UTC | 23-WEEK HORIZON

68% Bear Target

₿ 0.00004339

23-Week Base Target

₿ 0.00073189

68% Bull Target

₿ 0.00190062

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a projection of SOL's valuation against Bitcoin (BTC) using a Seasonal ARIMA model combined with a Box-Cox transformation to normalize historical volatility.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic rotation out of the asset and into BTC.
  • Base Case: The mathematical mean trajectory projected by the algorithm.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic outperformance against BTC.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Raw Data Matrix (BTC)

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-06-21 ₿ 0.00065526 ₿ 0.00077566 ₿ 0.00089781 ₿ 0.00103030 ₿ 0.00116931 ₿ 0.00131030 ₿ 0.00146361
2026-06-28 ₿ 0.00046953 ₿ 0.00063896 ₿ 0.00081843 ₿ 0.00101965 ₿ 0.00123652 ₿ 0.00146130 ₿ 0.00171019
2026-07-05 ₿ 0.00032180 ₿ 0.00052107 ₿ 0.00074285 ₿ 0.00099983 ₿ 0.00128357 ₿ 0.00158297 ₿ 0.00191919
2026-07-12 ₿ 0.00020234 ₿ 0.00041604 ₿ 0.00066877 ₿ 0.00097197 ₿ 0.00131450 ₿ 0.00168172 ₿ 0.00209902
2026-07-19 ₿ 0.00010371 ₿ 0.00031515 ₿ 0.00058733 ₿ 0.00092708 ₿ 0.00132005 ₿ 0.00174782 ₿ 0.00223924
2026-07-26 ₿ 0.00003621 ₿ 0.00023134 ₿ 0.00051517 ₿ 0.00088532 ₿ 0.00132350 ₿ 0.00180722 ₿ 0.00236827
2026-08-02 ₿ 0.00000646 ₿ 0.00018418 ₿ 0.00048244 ₿ 0.00088590 ₿ 0.00137187 ₿ 0.00191371 ₿ 0.00254628
2026-08-09 ₿ nan ₿ 0.00015279 ₿ 0.00046605 ₿ 0.00090343 ₿ 0.00143753 ₿ 0.00203752 ₿ 0.00274137
2026-08-16 ₿ nan ₿ 0.00011885 ₿ 0.00044038 ₿ 0.00090626 ₿ 0.00148359 ₿ 0.00213720 ₿ 0.00290769
2026-08-23 ₿ nan ₿ 0.00008658 ₿ 0.00041099 ₿ 0.00090132 ₿ 0.00151824 ₿ 0.00222205 ₿ 0.00305562
2026-08-30 ₿ nan ₿ 0.00005225 ₿ 0.00036909 ₿ 0.00087647 ₿ 0.00152662 ₿ 0.00227491 ₿ 0.00316589
2026-09-06 ₿ nan ₿ 0.00003303 ₿ 0.00034818 ₿ 0.00087753 ₿ 0.00156483 ₿ 0.00236074 ₿ 0.00331183
2026-09-13 ₿ nan ₿ 0.00000936 ₿ 0.00031080 ₿ 0.00086660 ₿ 0.00160394 ₿ 0.00246596 ₿ 0.00350171
2026-09-20 ₿ nan ₿ nan ₿ 0.00027799 ₿ 0.00086028 ₿ 0.00164920 ₿ 0.00257972 ₿ 0.00370331
2026-09-27 ₿ nan ₿ nan ₿ 0.00024071 ₿ 0.00084396 ₿ 0.00168097 ₿ 0.00267756 ₿ 0.00388714
2026-10-04 ₿ nan ₿ nan ₿ 0.00020104 ₿ 0.00081921 ₿ 0.00170022 ₿ 0.00275966 ₿ 0.00405233
2026-10-11 ₿ nan ₿ nan ₿ 0.00015541 ₿ 0.00077795 ₿ 0.00169548 ₿ 0.00281164 ₿ 0.00418166
2026-10-18 ₿ nan ₿ nan ₿ 0.00011586 ₿ 0.00073936 ₿ 0.00169150 ₿ 0.00286276 ₿ 0.00430848
2026-10-25 ₿ nan ₿ nan ₿ 0.00009946 ₿ 0.00074024 ₿ 0.00173891 ₿ 0.00297477 ₿ 0.00450467
2026-11-01 ₿ nan ₿ nan ₿ 0.00009175 ₿ 0.00075688 ₿ 0.00180680 ₿ 0.00311076 ₿ 0.00472777
2026-11-08 ₿ nan ₿ nan ₿ 0.00007860 ₿ 0.00075967 ₿ 0.00185473 ₿ 0.00322155 ₿ 0.00492054
2026-11-15 ₿ nan ₿ nan ₿ 0.00006364 ₿ 0.00075513 ₿ 0.00189143 ₿ 0.00331767 ₿ 0.00509519
2026-11-22 ₿ nan ₿ nan ₿ 0.00004339 ₿ 0.00073189 ₿ 0.00190062 ₿ 0.00337899 ₿ 0.00522812