68% Bear Case

$25.61

23-Week Base Target

$71.86

68% Bull Case

$148.92

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of SOL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 47.08 53.56 60.25 67.64 75.55 83.73 92.82
2026-06-21 36.43 45.81 56.04 67.90 81.15 95.39 111.75
2026-06-28 29.36 40.73 53.78 69.55 87.82 108.06 131.93
2026-07-05 23.60 36.17 51.35 70.45 93.27 119.20 150.44
2026-07-12 17.10 29.64 45.71 66.81 92.88 123.28 160.66
2026-07-19 12.44 24.64 41.28 64.04 93.05 127.65 170.97
2026-07-26 9.51 21.48 38.78 63.35 95.48 134.51 184.09
2026-08-02 7.58 19.44 37.54 64.06 99.50 143.20 199.37
2026-08-09 6.43 18.45 37.63 66.46 105.62 154.48 217.80
2026-08-16 5.22 17.07 36.94 67.64 110.08 163.64 233.65
2026-08-23 3.84 15.00 34.94 66.78 111.67 169.10 244.89
2026-08-30 3.08 13.97 34.47 68.03 116.06 178.09 260.52
2026-09-06 2.58 13.44 34.81 70.52 122.23 189.54 279.48
2026-09-13 2.01 12.54 34.41 71.85 126.81 198.97 295.97
2026-09-20 1.64 12.04 34.66 74.13 132.72 210.16 314.75
2026-09-27 1.24 11.24 34.26 75.36 137.13 219.39 331.08
2026-10-04 0.61 9.07 30.94 71.73 134.45 219.15 335.24
2026-10-11 0.25 7.39 28.27 68.92 132.78 220.13 340.88
2026-10-18 0.10 6.42 26.95 68.24 134.16 225.16 351.73
2026-10-25 0.04 5.88 26.50 69.00 137.66 233.06 366.33
2026-11-01 0.02 5.77 27.06 71.52 143.81 244.62 385.77
2026-11-08 0.00 5.39 26.90 72.76 148.02 253.53 401.76
2026-11-15 NaN 4.62 25.61 71.86 148.92 257.84 411.70