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TSMC (TSM) research
Every model we publish for TSMC — valuation, risk and forecast — regenerated daily from market data. Free, no account.
TSMC key levels today
The headline figure from each of TSMC's reports, as published today. Each comes from the report linked beside it.
| 200-week TWAP | $210.90 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| Gravity Risk (0-100) | 63.1 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| 200-week moving average | $211.92 | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Accumulation line (-1σ) | $397.83 | Valuation Bands |
| Valuation-band fair value | $465.15 | Valuation Bands |
| Distribution line (+1σ) | $543.86 | Valuation Bands |
| Detected market phase | Deep Capitulation (-2σ) | Valuation Bands |
| Moving-average risk score | 57.3% | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Forecast base target | $481.64 (68% range $313.52 to $806.35) | Price Forecast |
Is TSMC overvalued right now?
TSMC trades 85% above its 200-week Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), with a Gravity Risk score of 63.1/100.
Where is TSMC against its 200-week moving average?
TSMC is 84.4% above its 200-week moving average of $211.92, at $390.79. Macro risk score 57.3%.
What are TSMC's fair value, floor and ceiling?
TSMC fair value $465.15; the phase detector reads Deep Capitulation (-2σ), 31.4% through the phase.
What does the model forecast for the TSMC price?
TSMC model base target $481.64 by May 16, 2027, with a 68% range of $313.52 to $806.35.
How does TSMC's reading today compare with its own history?
Across the 45 daily readings published from 2026-09-04 to 2026-11-09, TSMC's moving-average risk score ranged from 55 to 91.5 (57.3 today) and its phase completion ranged from 30.8% to 59% (31.4% today).
How does TSMC's Gravity Risk compare with other AI infrastructure stocks?
TSMC's Gravity Risk of 63.1 is the 5th highest of the 32 AI infrastructure stocks we track, against a median of 31.4. The lowest reading today is CoreWeave at 0 and the highest is Riskified at 98.3. By premium to its 200-week TWAP, 85% above, it is the 8th highest of the 32, against a median of 40% above.