TSMC price forecast: what the model says

TSM SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$390.79

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$481.64

Bear 68%

$313.52

Bull 68%

$806.35

68% Range Width

102.3%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $322.23 $341.77 $362.06 $384.75 $409.46 $435.61 $465.45
2026-11-29 $292.90 $321.44 $352.54 $389.11 $431.17 $478.28 $535.44
2026-12-06 $272.98 $307.06 $345.51 $392.46 $448.76 $514.74 $598.88
2026-12-13 $260.16 $298.52 $343.05 $399.16 $468.87 $553.81 $667.07
2026-12-20 $249.69 $291.35 $340.88 $405.00 $487.17 $590.85 $734.84
2026-12-27 $241.28 $285.70 $339.67 $411.24 $505.59 $628.56 $806.05
2027-01-03 $234.45 $281.34 $339.41 $418.18 $524.79 $668.08 $882.78
2027-01-10 $228.10 $277.02 $338.70 $424.08 $542.53 $706.42 $961.01
2027-01-17 $220.44 $270.50 $334.58 $424.90 $552.94 $734.79 $1,026.73
2027-01-24 $213.02 $263.84 $329.79 $424.29 $560.97 $759.89 $1,089.38
2027-01-31 $208.22 $260.35 $328.96 $428.94 $576.61 $797.12 $1,174.87
2027-02-07 $204.52 $258.11 $329.61 $435.56 $595.36 $840.29 $1,274.68
2027-02-14 $195.75 $248.71 $320.10 $427.19 $591.24 $847.68 $1,314.74
2027-02-21 $191.86 $245.86 $319.60 $431.98 $607.65 $889.44 $1,421.13
2027-02-28 $187.94 $242.77 $318.56 $435.81 $622.66 $929.95 $1,530.35
2027-03-07 $185.47 $241.58 $320.12 $443.56 $644.33 $983.50 $1,672.02
2027-03-14 $182.86 $240.06 $321.08 $450.32 $664.72 $1,036.50 $1,820.47
2027-03-21 $180.54 $238.83 $322.34 $457.55 $686.29 $1,093.53 $1,986.47
2027-03-28 $178.56 $237.98 $324.11 $465.60 $709.73 $1,156.18 $2,175.70
2027-04-04 $176.37 $236.72 $325.14 $472.45 $731.46 $1,217.66 $2,373.59
2027-04-11 $172.83 $233.31 $322.72 $473.40 $742.56 $1,259.08 $2,530.61
2027-04-18 $169.08 $229.45 $319.43 $472.69 $750.50 $1,294.75 $2,679.70
2027-04-25 $166.95 $227.96 $319.76 $478.10 $770.14 $1,356.72 $2,911.28
2027-05-02 $165.43 $227.32 $321.40 $485.80 $794.66 $1,431.77 $3,197.11
2027-05-09 $159.97 $220.56 $313.14 $476.06 $785.16 $1,431.97 $3,268.48
2027-05-16 $158.01 $219.18 $313.52 $481.64 $806.35 $1,504.04 $3,577.59

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.