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Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) research
Every model we publish for Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund — valuation, risk and forecast — regenerated daily from market data. Free, no account.
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund key levels today
The headline figure from each of Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund's reports, as published today. Each comes from the report linked beside it.
| Lifetime TWAP | $70.87 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| Gravity Risk (0-100) | 21.1 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| 200-week moving average | $70.72 | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Accumulation line (-1σ) | $47.06 | Valuation Bands |
| Valuation-band fair value | $53.50 | Valuation Bands |
| Distribution line (+1σ) | $60.82 | Valuation Bands |
| Detected market phase | Extreme Bubble (+2σ) | Valuation Bands |
| Moving-average risk score | 41.5% | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Forecast base target | $64.40 (68% range $41.49 to $94.41) | Price Forecast |
Is Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund overvalued right now?
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund trades 8% below its lifetime Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), with a Gravity Risk score of 21.1/100.
Where is Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund against its 200-week moving average?
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund is 8.1% below its 200-week moving average of $70.72, at $65.01. Macro risk score 41.5%.
What are Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund's fair value, floor and ceiling?
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund fair value $53.50; the phase detector reads Extreme Bubble (+2σ), 75.3% through the phase.
What does the model forecast for the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund price?
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund model base target $64.40 by May 16, 2027, with a 68% range of $41.49 to $94.41.
How does Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund's reading today compare with its own history?
Across the 43 daily readings published from 2026-09-04 to 2026-11-09, Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund's moving-average risk score ranged from 41.5 to 63.5 (41.5 today) and its phase completion ranged from 75.3% to 99.3% (75.3% today).
How does Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund's Gravity Risk compare with other Bitcoin-linked stocks and funds?
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund's Gravity Risk of 21.1 is the 7th highest of the 18 Bitcoin-linked stocks and funds we track, against a median of 16.9. The lowest reading today is Argo Blockchain at 0 and the highest is TeraWulf at 42.1. By premium to its lifetime TWAP, 8% below, it is the 9th highest of the 18, against a median of 8% below.