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Microsoft (MSFT) research
Every model we publish for Microsoft — valuation, risk and forecast — regenerated daily from market data. Free, no account.
Microsoft key levels today
The headline figure from each of Microsoft's reports, as published today. Each comes from the report linked beside it.
| 200-week TWAP | $404.70 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| Gravity Risk (0-100) | 31.7 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| 200-week moving average | $405.80 | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Accumulation line (-1σ) | $446.65 | Valuation Bands |
| Valuation-band fair value | $485.02 | Valuation Bands |
| Distribution line (+1σ) | $526.70 | Valuation Bands |
| Detected market phase | Extreme Bubble (+2σ) | Valuation Bands |
| Moving-average risk score | 82.2% | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Forecast base target | $580.46 (68% range $500.65 to $665.95) | Price Forecast |
Is Microsoft overvalued right now?
Microsoft trades 34% above its 200-week Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), with a Gravity Risk score of 31.7/100.
Where is Microsoft against its 200-week moving average?
Microsoft is 33.7% above its 200-week moving average of $405.80, at $542.59. Macro risk score 82.2%.
What are Microsoft's fair value, floor and ceiling?
Microsoft fair value $485.02; the phase detector reads Extreme Bubble (+2σ), 72.7% through the phase.
What does the model forecast for the Microsoft price?
Microsoft model base target $580.46 by May 16, 2027, with a 68% range of $500.65 to $665.95.
How does Microsoft's reading today compare with its own history?
Across the 45 daily readings published from 2026-09-04 to 2026-11-09, Microsoft's moving-average risk score ranged from 73.5 to 85.3 (82.2 today) and its phase completion ranged from 59.6% to 75.6% (72.7% today).
How does Microsoft's Gravity Risk compare with other AI infrastructure stocks?
Microsoft's Gravity Risk of 31.7 is the 16th highest of the 32 AI infrastructure stocks we track, against a median of 31.4. The lowest reading today is CoreWeave at 0 and the highest is Riskified at 98.3. By premium to its 200-week TWAP, 34% above, it is the 14th lowest of the 32, against a median of 40% above.