Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund price forecast: what the model says

FBTC SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$65.01

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$64.40

Bear 68%

$41.49

Bull 68%

$94.41

68% Range Width

82.2%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $53.94 $57.33 $60.70 $64.31 $68.05 $71.83 $75.91
2026-11-29 $49.56 $54.45 $59.42 $64.85 $70.60 $76.49 $82.97
2026-12-06 $46.55 $52.59 $58.85 $65.78 $73.24 $80.99 $89.64
2026-12-13 $43.10 $49.97 $57.20 $65.33 $74.19 $83.52 $94.05
2026-12-20 $42.01 $49.76 $58.02 $67.41 $77.77 $88.78 $101.32
2026-12-27 $39.79 $48.15 $57.16 $67.55 $79.12 $91.53 $105.79
2027-01-03 $37.65 $46.49 $56.15 $67.41 $80.06 $93.76 $109.61
2027-01-10 $34.58 $43.65 $53.70 $65.53 $78.97 $93.64 $110.78
2027-01-17 $32.22 $41.52 $51.95 $64.36 $78.59 $94.25 $112.67
2027-01-24 $30.34 $39.86 $50.67 $63.66 $78.68 $95.33 $115.05
2027-01-31 $28.68 $38.40 $49.56 $63.10 $78.88 $96.50 $117.48
2027-02-07 $27.95 $38.03 $49.69 $63.95 $80.68 $99.47 $121.94
2027-02-14 $26.30 $36.63 $48.75 $63.73 $81.48 $101.58 $125.78
2027-02-21 $25.28 $35.96 $48.66 $64.51 $83.45 $105.04 $131.20
2027-02-28 $24.46 $35.52 $48.81 $65.56 $85.73 $108.87 $137.06
2027-03-07 $22.98 $34.17 $47.80 $65.16 $86.25 $110.63 $140.52
2027-03-14 $22.82 $34.50 $48.85 $67.27 $89.78 $115.93 $148.11
2027-03-21 $21.76 $33.60 $48.34 $67.43 $90.93 $118.39 $152.39
2027-03-28 $20.63 $32.57 $47.62 $67.29 $91.70 $120.39 $156.09
2027-04-04 $18.82 $30.55 $45.55 $65.42 $90.29 $119.75 $156.64
2027-04-11 $17.42 $29.03 $44.09 $64.25 $89.71 $120.07 $158.28
2027-04-18 $16.30 $27.84 $43.03 $63.55 $89.67 $121.01 $160.66
2027-04-25 $15.30 $26.79 $42.10 $62.99 $89.78 $122.11 $163.21
2027-05-02 $14.90 $26.57 $42.27 $63.84 $91.66 $125.37 $168.37
2027-05-09 $13.94 $25.58 $41.51 $63.63 $92.39 $127.49 $172.49
2027-05-16 $13.36 $25.15 $41.49 $64.40 $94.41 $131.21 $178.62

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.