CryptoWeeklies / Reports / MSTR
Strategy (MSTR) research
Every model we publish for Strategy — valuation, risk and forecast — regenerated daily from market data. Free, no account.
Strategy key levels today
The headline figure from each of Strategy's reports, as published today. Each comes from the report linked beside it.
| Lifetime TWAP | $109.68 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| Gravity Risk (0-100) | 12.1 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| 200-week moving average | $167.96 | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Regression floor | $150.24 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Regression fair value | $294.38 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Regression ceiling | $774.84 | DCA & Regression Fair Value |
| Accumulation line (-1σ) | $166.92 | Valuation Bands |
| Valuation-band fair value | $259.28 | Valuation Bands |
| Distribution line (+1σ) | $402.75 | Valuation Bands |
| Detected market phase | Deep Capitulation (-2σ) | Valuation Bands |
| Moving-average risk score | 40.2% | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Forecast base target | $145.50 (68% range $71.90 to $302.75) | Price Forecast |
| Base scenario value by 2040 | $1,195 | Retirement CAGR Model |
Is Strategy overvalued right now?
Strategy trades 15% above its lifetime Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), with a Gravity Risk score of 12.1/100.
Where is Strategy against its 200-week moving average?
Strategy is 24.8% below its 200-week moving average of $167.96, at $126.25. Macro risk score 40.2%.
Where is Strategy against its DCA fair value?
Strategy sits 57% below its regression fair value of $294.38.
What are Strategy's fair value, floor and ceiling?
Strategy fair value $259.28; the phase detector reads Deep Capitulation (-2σ), 22.8% through the phase.
What does the model forecast for the Strategy price?
Strategy model base target $145.50 by May 16, 2027, with a 68% range of $71.90 to $302.75.
How much Strategy do you need to retire?
In the base scenario (35% in growth years, with a drawdown every four years), Strategy reaches $1,195 by 2040. A scenario, not a forecast.
How does Strategy's reading today compare with its own history?
Across the 45 daily readings published from 2026-09-04 to 2026-11-09, Strategy's moving-average risk score ranged from 40.2 to 55.5 (40.2 today) and its phase completion ranged from 22.2% to 31.7% (22.8% today). Against its regression fair value it ranged from 79% below to 47% above over 92 weeks from 2025-01-31 to 2026-11-09, with a median of 18% below; today it is 57% below.
How does Strategy's Gravity Risk compare with other Bitcoin-linked stocks and funds?
Strategy's Gravity Risk of 12.1 is the 6th lowest of the 18 Bitcoin-linked stocks and funds we track, against a median of 16.9. The lowest reading today is Argo Blockchain at 0 and the highest is TeraWulf at 42.1. By premium to its lifetime TWAP, 15% above, it is the 6th highest of the 18, against a median of 8% below.
Strategy's track record
Every weekly DCA reading published for Strategy since mid-2024, set beside the price 13 and 26 weeks later: see the receipts.