Strategy price forecast: what the model says

MSTR SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$126.25

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$145.50

Bear 68%

$71.90

Bull 68%

$302.75

68% Range Width

158.7%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $90.24 $100.65 $111.82 $124.69 $139.14 $154.86 $173.28
2026-11-29 $75.07 $89.02 $104.95 $124.54 $148.03 $175.33 $209.57
2026-12-06 $67.41 $83.74 $103.34 $128.65 $160.59 $199.67 $251.34
2026-12-13 $61.32 $79.15 $101.40 $131.34 $170.74 $221.07 $290.62
2026-12-20 $57.20 $76.31 $101.01 $135.43 $182.44 $244.79 $334.37
2026-12-27 $52.72 $72.40 $98.63 $136.36 $189.60 $262.60 $371.24
2027-01-03 $48.86 $68.89 $96.33 $136.94 $196.00 $279.49 $407.79
2027-01-10 $44.28 $63.93 $91.53 $133.44 $196.06 $287.08 $431.11
2027-01-17 $40.76 $60.16 $88.05 $131.44 $197.95 $297.20 $458.65
2027-01-24 $37.57 $56.61 $84.58 $129.09 $198.98 $305.86 $484.33
2027-01-31 $36.44 $56.05 $85.48 $133.39 $210.43 $331.21 $538.24
2027-02-07 $34.61 $54.25 $84.32 $134.31 $216.51 $348.37 $580.03
2027-02-14 $32.66 $52.17 $82.65 $134.38 $221.36 $364.15 $621.29
2027-02-21 $30.91 $50.28 $81.12 $134.55 $226.36 $380.50 $664.83
2027-02-28 $30.18 $50.01 $82.19 $139.08 $238.99 $410.59 $734.96
2027-03-07 $29.21 $49.23 $82.34 $142.01 $249.01 $436.80 $800.13
2027-03-14 $28.57 $48.98 $83.34 $146.45 $261.96 $469.06 $879.11
2027-03-21 $27.39 $47.69 $82.46 $147.46 $268.72 $490.52 $939.29
2027-03-28 $26.23 $46.37 $81.42 $148.09 $274.78 $511.04 $999.23
2027-04-04 $24.47 $43.87 $78.12 $144.29 $272.17 $514.94 $1,026.37
2027-04-11 $23.09 $41.96 $75.77 $142.12 $272.52 $524.46 $1,065.55
2027-04-18 $21.76 $40.07 $73.32 $139.57 $271.90 $532.00 $1,101.14
2027-04-25 $21.49 $40.15 $74.56 $144.24 $285.91 $569.63 $1,203.36
2027-05-02 $20.76 $39.29 $73.96 $145.23 $292.54 $592.73 $1,276.13
2027-05-09 $19.91 $38.20 $72.89 $145.31 $297.51 $613.16 $1,345.85
2027-05-16 $19.13 $37.17 $71.90 $145.50 $302.75 $634.64 $1,420.03

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.