ICP Risk Matrix

$2.8560 | Risk: 0.63

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:54 UTC

📈 ICP Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-1.2884
Level 0.05 $-0.9601
Level 0.10 $-0.6317
Level 0.15 $-0.3034
Level 0.20 $0.0250
Level 0.25 $0.3534
Level 0.30 $0.6817
Level 0.35 $1.0101
Level 0.40 $1.3384
Level 0.45 $1.6668
Level 0.50 $1.9951
Level 0.55 $2.3235
Level 0.60 $2.6519
Level 0.65 $2.9802
Level 0.70 $3.3086
Level 0.75 $3.6369
Level 0.80 $3.9653
Level 0.85 $4.2937
Level 0.90 $4.6220
Level 0.95 $4.9504
Level 1.00 $5.2787

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes ICP's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what ICP's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.