68% Bear Case

$1.42

23-Week Base Target

$2.01

68% Bull Case

$3.06

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of ICP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 1.90 2.02 2.15 2.30 2.46 2.63 2.84
2026-06-21 1.71 1.88 2.08 2.30 2.57 2.89 3.27
2026-06-28 1.64 1.84 2.08 2.37 2.72 3.16 3.73
2026-07-05 1.55 1.77 2.04 2.37 2.80 3.34 4.08
2026-07-12 1.52 1.76 2.06 2.45 2.96 3.63 4.61
2026-07-19 1.41 1.65 1.94 2.34 2.87 3.59 4.66
2026-07-26 1.35 1.60 1.91 2.34 2.92 3.73 5.00
2026-08-02 1.29 1.54 1.85 2.29 2.91 3.78 5.19
2026-08-09 1.24 1.49 1.80 2.25 2.90 3.83 5.39
2026-08-16 1.19 1.44 1.77 2.23 2.91 3.91 5.65
2026-08-23 1.15 1.39 1.72 2.19 2.88 3.94 5.81
2026-08-30 1.10 1.35 1.67 2.15 2.86 3.96 5.97
2026-09-06 1.06 1.30 1.63 2.11 2.85 4.01 6.21
2026-09-13 1.03 1.28 1.61 2.11 2.89 4.15 6.64
2026-09-20 1.02 1.28 1.63 2.17 3.03 4.47 7.47
2026-09-27 1.00 1.26 1.61 2.17 3.08 4.64 8.04
2026-10-04 1.00 1.26 1.64 2.24 3.23 5.03 9.16
2026-10-11 0.95 1.20 1.56 2.14 3.11 4.86 8.97
2026-10-18 0.93 1.18 1.55 2.14 3.15 5.02 9.60
2026-10-25 0.90 1.15 1.51 2.10 3.12 5.04 9.87
2026-11-01 0.87 1.12 1.48 2.07 3.09 5.07 10.18
2026-11-08 0.85 1.10 1.46 2.05 3.10 5.15 10.66
2026-11-15 0.82 1.07 1.42 2.01 3.06 5.15 10.90