ICP/BTC Asset Valuation

LAST UPDATE: 2026-08-28 00:06 UTC | 23-WEEK HORIZON

68% Bear Target

₿ 0.00001569

23-Week Base Target

₿ 0.00002392

68% Bull Target

₿ 0.00003761

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a projection of ICP's valuation against Bitcoin (BTC) using a Seasonal ARIMA model combined with a Box-Cox transformation to normalize historical volatility.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic rotation out of the asset and into BTC.
  • Base Case: The mathematical mean trajectory projected by the algorithm.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic outperformance against BTC.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Raw Data Matrix (BTC)

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-09-06 ₿ 0.00002315 ₿ 0.00002506 ₿ 0.00002707 ₿ 0.00002933 ₿ 0.00003181 ₿ 0.00003446 ₿ 0.00003750
2026-09-13 ₿ 0.00001977 ₿ 0.00002224 ₿ 0.00002496 ₿ 0.00002817 ₿ 0.00003186 ₿ 0.00003600 ₿ 0.00004101
2026-09-20 ₿ 0.00001805 ₿ 0.00002083 ₿ 0.00002398 ₿ 0.00002782 ₿ 0.00003239 ₿ 0.00003767 ₿ 0.00004430
2026-09-27 ₿ 0.00001703 ₿ 0.00002010 ₿ 0.00002366 ₿ 0.00002811 ₿ 0.00003357 ₿ 0.00004009 ₿ 0.00004851
2026-10-04 ₿ 0.00001609 ₿ 0.00001934 ₿ 0.00002321 ₿ 0.00002815 ₿ 0.00003437 ₿ 0.00004198 ₿ 0.00005209
2026-10-11 ₿ 0.00001588 ₿ 0.00001945 ₿ 0.00002376 ₿ 0.00002941 ₿ 0.00003669 ₿ 0.00004582 ₿ 0.00005830
2026-10-18 ₿ 0.00001474 ₿ 0.00001830 ₿ 0.00002269 ₿ 0.00002854 ₿ 0.00003622 ₿ 0.00004606 ₿ 0.00005981
2026-10-25 ₿ 0.00001405 ₿ 0.00001769 ₿ 0.00002224 ₿ 0.00002841 ₿ 0.00003667 ₿ 0.00004747 ₿ 0.00006290
2026-11-01 ₿ 0.00001335 ₿ 0.00001701 ₿ 0.00002167 ₿ 0.00002809 ₿ 0.00003682 ₿ 0.00004845 ₿ 0.00006541
2026-11-08 ₿ 0.00001277 ₿ 0.00001647 ₿ 0.00002123 ₿ 0.00002790 ₿ 0.00003712 ₿ 0.00004963 ₿ 0.00006823
2026-11-15 ₿ 0.00001204 ₿ 0.00001569 ₿ 0.00002045 ₿ 0.00002720 ₿ 0.00003667 ₿ 0.00004972 ₿ 0.00006948
2026-11-22 ₿ 0.00001142 ₿ 0.00001503 ₿ 0.00001979 ₿ 0.00002663 ₿ 0.00003636 ₿ 0.00004998 ₿ 0.00007095
2026-11-29 ₿ 0.00001068 ₿ 0.00001420 ₿ 0.00001891 ₿ 0.00002577 ₿ 0.00003569 ₿ 0.00004980 ₿ 0.00007195
2026-12-06 ₿ 0.00000993 ₿ 0.00001334 ₿ 0.00001795 ₿ 0.00002476 ₿ 0.00003474 ₿ 0.00004917 ₿ 0.00007224
2026-12-13 ₿ 0.00000949 ₿ 0.00001288 ₿ 0.00001752 ₿ 0.00002446 ₿ 0.00003480 ₿ 0.00005001 ₿ 0.00007479
2026-12-20 ₿ 0.00000925 ₿ 0.00001270 ₿ 0.00001747 ₿ 0.00002471 ₿ 0.00003568 ₿ 0.00005211 ₿ 0.00007942
2026-12-27 ₿ 0.00000897 ₿ 0.00001243 ₿ 0.00001728 ₿ 0.00002475 ₿ 0.00003623 ₿ 0.00005370 ₿ 0.00008332
2027-01-03 ₿ 0.00000901 ₿ 0.00001264 ₿ 0.00001779 ₿ 0.00002583 ₿ 0.00003842 ₿ 0.00005797 ₿ 0.00009186
2027-01-10 ₿ 0.00000853 ₿ 0.00001205 ₿ 0.00001711 ₿ 0.00002508 ₿ 0.00003772 ₿ 0.00005760 ₿ 0.00009261
2027-01-17 ₿ 0.00000825 ₿ 0.00001176 ₿ 0.00001685 ₿ 0.00002497 ₿ 0.00003801 ₿ 0.00005883 ₿ 0.00009615
2027-01-24 ₿ 0.00000795 ₿ 0.00001142 ₿ 0.00001650 ₿ 0.00002469 ₿ 0.00003801 ₿ 0.00005957 ₿ 0.00009888
2027-01-31 ₿ 0.00000769 ₿ 0.00001113 ₿ 0.00001623 ₿ 0.00002453 ₿ 0.00003819 ₿ 0.00006062 ₿ 0.00010218
2027-02-07 ₿ 0.00000734 ₿ 0.00001069 ₿ 0.00001569 ₿ 0.00002392 ₿ 0.00003761 ₿ 0.00006035 ₿ 0.00010309