ICP/BTC Asset Valuation

LAST UPDATE: 2026-06-12 02:17 UTC | 23-WEEK HORIZON

68% Bear Target

₿ 0.00001868

23-Week Base Target

₿ 0.00002951

68% Bull Target

₿ 0.00004823

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a projection of ICP's valuation against Bitcoin (BTC) using a Seasonal ARIMA model combined with a Box-Cox transformation to normalize historical volatility.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic rotation out of the asset and into BTC.
  • Base Case: The mathematical mean trajectory projected by the algorithm.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic outperformance against BTC.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Raw Data Matrix (BTC)

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-06-21 ₿ 0.00002657 ₿ 0.00002888 ₿ 0.00003132 ₿ 0.00003408 ₿ 0.00003713 ₿ 0.00004039 ₿ 0.00004414
2026-06-28 ₿ 0.00002322 ₿ 0.00002632 ₿ 0.00002975 ₿ 0.00003384 ₿ 0.00003858 ₿ 0.00004393 ₿ 0.00005045
2026-07-05 ₿ 0.00002158 ₿ 0.00002516 ₿ 0.00002925 ₿ 0.00003427 ₿ 0.00004032 ₿ 0.00004740 ₿ 0.00005637
2026-07-12 ₿ 0.00002016 ₿ 0.00002406 ₿ 0.00002864 ₿ 0.00003444 ₿ 0.00004163 ₿ 0.00005032 ₿ 0.00006170
2026-07-19 ₿ 0.00002012 ₿ 0.00002454 ₿ 0.00002986 ₿ 0.00003678 ₿ 0.00004562 ₿ 0.00005663 ₿ 0.00007151
2026-07-26 ₿ 0.00001841 ₿ 0.00002284 ₿ 0.00002828 ₿ 0.00003550 ₿ 0.00004493 ₿ 0.00005695 ₿ 0.00007364
2026-08-02 ₿ 0.00001754 ₿ 0.00002212 ₿ 0.00002784 ₿ 0.00003560 ₿ 0.00004595 ₿ 0.00005947 ₿ 0.00007872
2026-08-09 ₿ 0.00001644 ₿ 0.00002102 ₿ 0.00002685 ₿ 0.00003490 ₿ 0.00004585 ₿ 0.00006044 ₿ 0.00008170
2026-08-16 ₿ 0.00001546 ₿ 0.00002003 ₿ 0.00002594 ₿ 0.00003422 ₿ 0.00004569 ₿ 0.00006129 ₿ 0.00008450
2026-08-23 ₿ 0.00001460 ₿ 0.00001915 ₿ 0.00002510 ₿ 0.00003359 ₿ 0.00004555 ₿ 0.00006210 ₿ 0.00008725
2026-08-30 ₿ 0.00001390 ₿ 0.00001844 ₿ 0.00002446 ₿ 0.00003317 ₿ 0.00004566 ₿ 0.00006325 ₿ 0.00009051
2026-09-06 ₿ 0.00001295 ₿ 0.00001735 ₿ 0.00002326 ₿ 0.00003191 ₿ 0.00004448 ₿ 0.00006246 ₿ 0.00009080
2026-09-13 ₿ 0.00001191 ₿ 0.00001614 ₿ 0.00002190 ₿ 0.00003045 ₿ 0.00004309 ₿ 0.00006150 ₿ 0.00009111
2026-09-20 ₿ 0.00001129 ₿ 0.00001548 ₿ 0.00002128 ₿ 0.00003004 ₿ 0.00004321 ₿ 0.00006277 ₿ 0.00009495
2026-09-27 ₿ 0.00001099 ₿ 0.00001527 ₿ 0.00002127 ₿ 0.00003048 ₿ 0.00004461 ₿ 0.00006603 ₿ 0.00010211
2026-10-04 ₿ 0.00001062 ₿ 0.00001493 ₿ 0.00002105 ₿ 0.00003061 ₿ 0.00004551 ₿ 0.00006855 ₿ 0.00010824
2026-10-11 ₿ 0.00001082 ₿ 0.00001543 ₿ 0.00002208 ₿ 0.00003266 ₿ 0.00004952 ₿ 0.00007620 ₿ 0.00012343
2026-10-18 ₿ 0.00001014 ₿ 0.00001459 ₿ 0.00002109 ₿ 0.00003154 ₿ 0.00004841 ₿ 0.00007554 ₿ 0.00012441
2026-10-25 ₿ 0.00000983 ₿ 0.00001429 ₿ 0.00002088 ₿ 0.00003162 ₿ 0.00004926 ₿ 0.00007810 ₿ 0.00013117
2026-11-01 ₿ 0.00000936 ₿ 0.00001373 ₿ 0.00002025 ₿ 0.00003101 ₿ 0.00004891 ₿ 0.00007865 ₿ 0.00013436
2026-11-08 ₿ 0.00000893 ₿ 0.00001321 ₿ 0.00001966 ₿ 0.00003042 ₿ 0.00004856 ₿ 0.00007914 ₿ 0.00013745
2026-11-15 ₿ 0.00000854 ₿ 0.00001272 ₿ 0.00001911 ₿ 0.00002987 ₿ 0.00004825 ₿ 0.00007968 ₿ 0.00014064
2026-11-22 ₿ 0.00000821 ₿ 0.00001233 ₿ 0.00001868 ₿ 0.00002951 ₿ 0.00004823 ₿ 0.00008073 ₿ 0.00014485