ETH Risk Matrix

$2,611.7700 | Risk: 0.61

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-09-18 23:53 UTC

📈 ETH Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $889.2030
Level 0.05 $1,030.7387
Level 0.10 $1,172.2745
Level 0.15 $1,313.8103
Level 0.20 $1,455.3460
Level 0.25 $1,596.8818
Level 0.30 $1,738.4176
Level 0.35 $1,879.9533
Level 0.40 $2,021.4891
Level 0.45 $2,163.0249
Level 0.50 $2,304.5606
Level 0.55 $2,446.0964
Level 0.60 $2,587.6322
Level 0.65 $2,729.1679
Level 0.70 $2,870.7037
Level 0.75 $3,012.2394
Level 0.80 $3,153.7752
Level 0.85 $3,295.3110
Level 0.90 $3,436.8467
Level 0.95 $3,578.3825
Level 1.00 $3,719.9183

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes ETH's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what ETH's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.