ETH/BTC Asset Valuation

LAST UPDATE: 2026-06-12 02:17 UTC | 23-WEEK HORIZON

68% Bear Target

₿ 0.01601394

23-Week Base Target

₿ 0.02473935

68% Bull Target

₿ 0.03710338

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a projection of ETH's valuation against Bitcoin (BTC) using a Seasonal ARIMA model combined with a Box-Cox transformation to normalize historical volatility.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic rotation out of the asset and into BTC.
  • Base Case: The mathematical mean trajectory projected by the algorithm.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic outperformance against BTC.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Raw Data Matrix (BTC)

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-06-21 ₿ 0.02229107 ₿ 0.02375078 ₿ 0.02522302 ₿ 0.02681800 ₿ 0.02849603 ₿ 0.03020789 ₿ 0.03208509
2026-06-28 ₿ 0.01963659 ₿ 0.02190498 ₿ 0.02427868 ₿ 0.02694349 ₿ 0.02984729 ₿ 0.03291114 ₿ 0.03638381
2026-07-05 ₿ 0.01786894 ₿ 0.02060153 ₿ 0.02353716 ₿ 0.02691659 ₿ 0.03069036 ₿ 0.03476554 ₿ 0.03948957
2026-07-12 ₿ 0.01680459 ₿ 0.01990620 ₿ 0.02331059 ₿ 0.02731010 ₿ 0.03186483 ₿ 0.03687484 ₿ 0.04278649
2026-07-19 ₿ 0.01558834 ₿ 0.01892331 ₿ 0.02265530 ₿ 0.02711999 ₿ 0.03229372 ₿ 0.03807769 ₿ 0.04500927
2026-07-26 ₿ 0.01449202 ₿ 0.01799331 ₿ 0.02198145 ₿ 0.02683201 ₿ 0.03254195 ₿ 0.03901903 ₿ 0.04688939
2026-08-02 ₿ 0.01362125 ₿ 0.01726719 ₿ 0.02148821 ₿ 0.02669996 ₿ 0.03292319 ₿ 0.04007581 ₿ 0.04887558
2026-08-09 ₿ 0.01283348 ₿ 0.01659108 ₿ 0.02100853 ₿ 0.02654030 ₿ 0.03323387 ₿ 0.04102114 ₿ 0.05071186
2026-08-16 ₿ 0.01217844 ₿ 0.01603809 ₿ 0.02064122 ₿ 0.02648192 ₿ 0.03363689 ₿ 0.04205496 ₿ 0.05264139
2026-08-23 ₿ 0.01147910 ₿ 0.01539371 ₿ 0.02012848 ₿ 0.02621358 ₿ 0.03375731 ₿ 0.04272921 ₿ 0.05412645
2026-08-30 ₿ 0.01074324 ₿ 0.01466825 ₿ 0.01948199 ₿ 0.02574695 ₿ 0.03360468 ₿ 0.04304892 ₿ 0.05516405
2026-09-06 ₿ 0.01009925 ₿ 0.01403042 ₿ 0.01891663 ₿ 0.02535299 ₿ 0.03351587 ₿ 0.04342535 ₿ 0.05625531
2026-09-13 ₿ 0.00981195 ₿ 0.01386594 ₿ 0.01897127 ₿ 0.02577578 ₿ 0.03449913 ₿ 0.04519176 ₿ 0.05915943
2026-09-20 ₿ 0.00939878 ₿ 0.01352365 ₿ 0.01879037 ₿ 0.02589695 ₿ 0.03511056 ₿ 0.04651790 ₿ 0.06155699
2026-09-27 ₿ 0.00895781 ₿ 0.01312144 ₿ 0.01851061 ₿ 0.02587093 ₿ 0.03551903 ₿ 0.04758151 ₿ 0.06362702
2026-10-04 ₿ 0.00871223 ₿ 0.01296983 ₿ 0.01854883 ₿ 0.02625169 ₿ 0.03644863 ₿ 0.04930866 ₿ 0.06655129
2026-10-11 ₿ 0.00826686 ₿ 0.01252297 ₿ 0.01817413 ₿ 0.02606773 ₿ 0.03662705 ₿ 0.05006738 ₿ 0.06823960
2026-10-18 ₿ 0.00781691 ₿ 0.01204931 ₿ 0.01774340 ₿ 0.02578909 ₿ 0.03666360 ₿ 0.05063112 ₿ 0.06967178
2026-10-25 ₿ 0.00745069 ₿ 0.01167746 ₿ 0.01743568 ₿ 0.02566133 ₿ 0.03688801 ₿ 0.05143130 ₿ 0.07140998
2026-11-01 ₿ 0.00709840 ₿ 0.01131006 ₿ 0.01711911 ₿ 0.02550685 ₿ 0.03706452 ₿ 0.05216150 ₿ 0.07305646
2026-11-08 ₿ 0.00680037 ₿ 0.01100849 ₿ 0.01688204 ₿ 0.02545037 ₿ 0.03736466 ₿ 0.05305071 ₿ 0.07491511
2026-11-15 ₿ 0.00645434 ₿ 0.01062155 ₿ 0.01650982 ₿ 0.02519077 ₿ 0.03737455 ₿ 0.05354510 ₿ 0.07624777
2026-11-22 ₿ 0.00606893 ₿ 0.01015966 ₿ 0.01601394 ₿ 0.02473935 ₿ 0.03710338 ₿ 0.05364913 ₿ 0.07705014