Cosmos against its 20-week moving average: risk level

ATOM Risk Matrix

$1.3743 | Risk: 0.36

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:54 UTC

📈 ATOM Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.3774
Level 0.05 $-0.1363
Level 0.10 $0.1048
Level 0.15 $0.3459
Level 0.20 $0.5870
Level 0.25 $0.8281
Level 0.30 $1.0692
Level 0.35 $1.3103
Level 0.40 $1.5513
Level 0.45 $1.7924
Level 0.50 $2.0335
Level 0.55 $2.2746
Level 0.60 $2.5157
Level 0.65 $2.7568
Level 0.70 $2.9979
Level 0.75 $3.2390
Level 0.80 $3.4800
Level 0.85 $3.7211
Level 0.90 $3.9622
Level 0.95 $4.2033
Level 1.00 $4.4444

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes ATOM's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what ATOM's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.