68% Bear Case

$0.88

23-Week Base Target

$1.84

68% Bull Case

$4.22

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of TON11419 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 1.27 1.43 1.61 1.82 2.06 2.34 2.67
2026-06-21 1.02 1.24 1.49 1.82 2.24 2.76 3.45
2026-06-28 0.91 1.15 1.46 1.88 2.45 3.20 4.28
2026-07-05 0.80 1.05 1.39 1.86 2.54 3.48 4.93
2026-07-12 0.71 0.96 1.31 1.82 2.58 3.69 5.50
2026-07-19 0.64 0.89 1.24 1.78 2.62 3.90 6.08
2026-07-26 0.61 0.88 1.26 1.86 2.84 4.41 7.22
2026-08-02 0.57 0.83 1.22 1.86 2.93 4.70 8.04
2026-08-09 0.53 0.78 1.18 1.84 2.98 4.95 8.81
2026-08-16 0.49 0.74 1.14 1.82 3.03 5.19 9.60
2026-08-23 0.45 0.70 1.09 1.79 3.05 5.37 10.32
2026-08-30 0.43 0.67 1.06 1.77 3.10 5.62 11.18
2026-09-06 0.42 0.67 1.09 1.87 3.39 6.39 13.38
2026-09-13 0.40 0.65 1.07 1.88 3.49 6.81 14.90
2026-09-20 0.38 0.64 1.07 1.94 3.71 7.49 17.18
2026-09-27 0.36 0.61 1.04 1.92 3.77 7.84 18.71
2026-10-04 0.34 0.57 1.00 1.87 3.76 8.05 19.91
2026-10-11 0.32 0.55 0.96 1.84 3.77 8.27 21.24
2026-10-18 0.31 0.55 0.98 1.92 4.06 9.24 24.93
2026-10-25 0.30 0.53 0.96 1.92 4.14 9.70 27.23
2026-11-01 0.28 0.51 0.94 1.90 4.18 10.06 29.33
2026-11-08 0.27 0.49 0.91 1.87 4.22 10.42 31.52
2026-11-15 0.26 0.47 0.88 1.84 4.22 10.67 33.41