68% Bear Case

$0.00

23-Week Base Target

$0.10

68% Bull Case

$0.56

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of OP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.28
2026-06-21 0.00 0.02 0.05 0.11 0.20 0.31 0.46
2026-06-28 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.13 0.24 0.41 0.63
2026-07-05 NaN 0.01 0.05 0.14 0.29 0.50 0.80
2026-07-12 NaN 0.00 0.04 0.14 0.31 0.56 0.93
2026-07-19 NaN 0.00 0.03 0.12 0.31 0.59 1.01
2026-07-26 NaN NaN 0.02 0.11 0.30 0.61 1.07
2026-08-02 NaN NaN 0.01 0.10 0.30 0.64 1.16
2026-08-09 NaN NaN 0.01 0.10 0.32 0.70 1.28
2026-08-16 NaN NaN 0.01 0.10 0.34 0.74 1.39
2026-08-23 NaN NaN 0.00 0.09 0.34 0.77 1.46
2026-08-30 NaN NaN 0.01 0.10 0.38 0.87 1.65
2026-09-06 NaN NaN 0.01 0.12 0.42 0.97 1.84
2026-09-13 NaN NaN 0.01 0.12 0.46 1.05 2.00
2026-09-20 NaN NaN 0.01 0.14 0.51 1.17 2.23
2026-09-27 NaN NaN 0.01 0.15 0.56 1.27 2.42
2026-10-04 NaN NaN 0.01 0.15 0.57 1.33 2.56
2026-10-11 NaN NaN 0.00 0.13 0.56 1.33 2.61
2026-10-18 NaN NaN 0.00 0.12 0.54 1.33 2.64
2026-10-25 NaN NaN 0.00 0.11 0.54 1.36 2.73
2026-11-01 NaN NaN 0.00 0.11 0.55 1.42 2.87
2026-11-08 NaN NaN 0.00 0.11 0.57 1.47 2.98
2026-11-15 NaN NaN 0.00 0.10 0.56 1.48 3.05