68% Bear Case

$792.66

23-Week Base Target

$1,623.86

68% Bull Case

$3,378.95

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation.

  • Bear Case: The lower bound of the confidence interval, representing a pessimistic scenario.
  • Base Case: The average forecasted trajectory.
  • Bull Case: The upper bound of the confidence interval, representing an optimistic scenario.

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%. This acts as a mathematical cone illustrating the probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull bounds over the next 23 weeks.

Raw Data Matrix (USD)

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-06-14 1061.68 1190.77 1329.63 1490.17 1670.74 1867.66 2098.82
2026-06-21 862.01 1041.30 1249.20 1508.37 1823.24 2193.95 2664.43
2026-06-28 744.08 946.22 1193.13 1517.53 1933.46 2450.18 3142.98
2026-07-05 659.57 874.56 1148.54 1524.27 2027.78 2681.52 3598.64
2026-07-12 604.44 831.03 1130.63 1557.12 2151.09 2952.62 4122.60
2026-07-19 556.55 790.30 1109.68 1579.75 2257.39 3204.05 4636.10
2026-07-26 515.16 753.34 1088.63 1597.40 2354.30 3445.75 5151.86
2026-08-02 478.12 718.36 1066.02 1608.62 2439.76 3674.02 5663.07
2026-08-09 450.89 694.89 1057.23 1637.92 2552.21 3948.13 6263.44
2026-08-16 412.22 650.35 1012.53 1607.34 2568.03 4072.97 6636.80
2026-08-23 374.36 603.73 960.49 1560.03 2551.83 4143.60 6924.67
2026-08-30 340.14 560.06 909.45 1509.58 2525.16 4193.06 7178.04
2026-09-06 327.28 550.67 913.49 1551.00 2655.76 4514.29 7925.21
2026-09-13 311.02 534.30 904.73 1570.02 2749.63 4780.74 8600.24
2026-09-20 294.58 516.19 891.40 1579.57 2826.79 5022.72 9249.90
2026-09-27 279.19 498.65 877.53 1586.60 2899.17 5260.42 9909.79
2026-10-04 269.42 490.27 878.92 1620.83 3023.04 5599.49 10786.88
2026-10-11 258.75 479.39 874.88 1644.41 3128.27 5911.01 11635.78
2026-10-18 248.12 467.75 868.50 1662.80 3224.46 6211.73 12487.22
2026-10-25 237.36 455.04 859.12 1674.50 3308.02 6493.46 13322.67
2026-11-01 229.77 447.82 859.51 1705.03 3430.72 6860.43 14362.76
2026-11-08 215.09 425.71 829.70 1673.17 3424.77 6968.35 14867.00
2026-11-15 199.54 400.78 792.66 1623.86 3378.95 6990.60 15188.01