Amazon price forecast: what the model says

AMZN SARIMAX Forecast: Bear / Base / Bull Scenario Ladder

Current Spot

$268.58

Base Path by May 16, 2027

$280.69

Bear 68%

$233.99

Bull 68%

$331.71

68% Range Width

34.8%

Raw Forecast Scenario Matrix

Date Bear 99.7% Bear 95% Bear 68% Base Bull 68% Bull 95% Bull 99.7%
2026-11-22 $243.42 $251.48 $259.33 $267.54 $275.89 $284.11 $292.82
2026-11-29 $229.87 $241.83 $253.58 $265.98 $278.68 $291.30 $304.77
2026-12-06 $222.97 $237.55 $251.95 $267.24 $282.99 $298.71 $315.59
2026-12-13 $217.47 $234.25 $250.93 $268.71 $287.11 $305.57 $325.46
2026-12-20 $213.87 $232.58 $251.26 $271.26 $292.05 $312.97 $335.59
2026-12-27 $209.78 $230.17 $250.61 $272.59 $295.51 $318.66 $343.77
2027-01-03 $207.80 $229.81 $251.95 $275.83 $300.81 $326.12 $353.64
2027-01-10 $203.00 $226.33 $249.88 $275.38 $302.14 $329.33 $358.98
2027-01-17 $199.13 $223.70 $248.60 $275.65 $304.11 $333.11 $364.81
2027-01-24 $196.14 $221.91 $248.11 $276.65 $306.78 $337.54 $371.24
2027-01-31 $192.86 $219.72 $247.12 $277.06 $308.74 $341.16 $376.76
2027-02-07 $189.05 $216.89 $245.38 $276.60 $309.71 $343.69 $381.07
2027-02-14 $183.96 $212.68 $242.18 $274.61 $309.10 $344.57 $383.68
2027-02-21 $179.63 $209.21 $239.71 $273.32 $309.18 $346.14 $386.98
2027-02-28 $177.45 $208.01 $239.60 $274.51 $311.83 $350.38 $393.05
2027-03-07 $175.66 $207.17 $239.84 $276.02 $314.80 $354.92 $399.40
2027-03-14 $174.81 $207.32 $241.10 $278.60 $318.87 $360.60 $406.94
2027-03-21 $173.08 $206.46 $241.25 $279.95 $321.59 $364.82 $412.89
2027-03-28 $172.94 $207.31 $243.21 $283.23 $326.35 $371.19 $421.12
2027-04-04 $169.97 $205.03 $241.75 $282.78 $327.09 $373.24 $424.71
2027-04-11 $167.64 $203.41 $240.98 $283.05 $328.56 $376.05 $429.10
2027-04-18 $165.97 $202.48 $240.92 $284.07 $330.83 $379.69 $434.34
2027-04-25 $163.90 $201.09 $240.34 $284.48 $332.41 $382.58 $438.76
2027-05-02 $161.23 $198.99 $238.96 $284.01 $333.02 $384.39 $442.01
2027-05-09 $157.35 $195.56 $236.14 $281.99 $331.99 $384.49 $443.47
2027-05-16 $154.06 $192.77 $233.99 $280.69 $331.71 $385.39 $445.78

SARIMAX Forecasting Methodology

The forecast engine resamples daily prices into weekly structure, stabilizes variance through Box-Cox transformation, fits a SARIMAX trend model, then converts the forecast and confidence intervals back into price space. The log-scale y-axis uses a fixed clean tick ladder so the chart reads consistently across low-priced and high-priced equities.

The 68% band is the primary operating range; the 95% and 99.7% bands are wider stress envelopes for unusually strong regime outcomes.