Question 1

What is the 200-week moving average?

Accepted Answer

The 200-week moving average is the average closing price over the last 200 weeks — roughly four years. It is the slowest line on most of these charts, and the one that moves least.

Question 2

Why does the 200-week moving average span four years?

Accepted Answer

Four years is close to the historical spacing of Bitcoin's major cycles, so a 200-week window smooths through an entire boom and bust and leaves a line that mostly ignores short-term noise. In past cycles, price has spent very little time below it, and the periods it did were near major lows. That is the whole reason the level gets watched. It is not a rule — it is an observation about a small number of past cycles.

Question 3

How does the risk score use the 200-week moving average?

Accepted Answer

The composite risk pages combine several horizons — typically a 20-week, a 100-week and a 200-week average — and measure how far price has stretched above them. When price is far above all three, the score is high. When price is near or below the 200-week line, the score is near its floor. How that score is built is its own explainer: composite moving-average risk . For the shorter line, see 200-day vs 200-week .

Question 4

What can the 200-week moving average not tell you?

Accepted Answer

A moving average is arithmetic on past prices. It has no view on what happens next. "Price has always bounced here" is a statement about four or five events, which is not enough to be confident about the next one — and an asset can fall below its 200-week average and stay there. Related: TWAP , which never drops old data, and Gravity Risk .

What is the 200-week moving average?

Why does the 200-week moving average span four years?

How does the risk score use the 200-week moving average?

What can the 200-week moving average not tell you?

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