Question 1

How is a crypto risk score calculated?

Accepted Answer

Short version: a crypto risk score squeezes several separate measures of how stretched a coin looks into one number. The one published here runs from 0.0 to 1.0; today's score for every coin is on the crypto risk score page . This page is about how that number is put together.

Question 2

What goes into the crypto risk score?

Accepted Answer

Seven factors in three groups. Trend and valuation: how far price sits from a logarithmic growth curve, from its lifetime time-weighted average price (TWAP) and above its 20-week moving average, each measured as a z-score against the coin's own history. Market cycle: the drawdown from the all-time high, where trading near the high counts as the most risk and a deep drawdown as the least. Stability: the volatility of returns, the beta against the S&P 500, and the Sharpe ratio, inverted so that a better risk-adjusted return reads as lower risk. By default the log-regression deviation and the drawdown carry 23.5% of the weight each, the TWAP and 20-week deviations 17.6% each, and volatility, beta and Sharpe 5.9% each. The page lets you move those weights and watch every gauge recalibrate.

Question 3

How do you read a crypto risk score?

Accepted Answer

Lower means closer to the coin's own long-run norms; higher means more stretched by its own history. The page names three zones: Accumulation below 0.33, Hold / Neutral up to 0.66, and Distribution above that. Because each factor is measured against the coin's own past, the same score on two coins means each is equally stretched by its own standards, not that the two carry the same risk in dollars.

Question 4

What can a crypto risk score not tell you?

Accepted Answer

It is not a prediction. The weights are a choice, and a different choice gives a different score. Several factors overlap: distance from a growth curve, from the TWAP and from a moving average all measure much the same stretch, so they tend to rise and fall together. A young coin has a short history, which makes every z-score in the mix less meaningful. See also Gravity Risk , the single-model score behind the TWAP reports.

How is a crypto risk score calculated?

What goes into the crypto risk score?

How do you read a crypto risk score?

What can a crypto risk score not tell you?

Other models explained