Question 1

What is a Gravity Risk score?

Accepted Answer

Short version: Gravity Risk is a 0–100 number for how far an asset has stretched away from its own long-run average price . Low means it is trading near that average. High means it is a long way above it.

Question 2

How is the Gravity Risk score calculated?

Accepted Answer

Every asset here has a lifetime time-weighted average price, or TWAP — the average price it has traded at across its whole history, with every day counted equally. (That is its own explainer: what is TWAP? ) Gravity Risk measures the gap between today's price and that lifetime average, then scales the result onto 0–100 against how big that gap has been historically. An asset sitting exactly on its lifetime average scores near the floor. An asset at the most extended level it has ever reached scores near the ceiling. Stocks are measured on two baselines. Bitcoin-treasury stocks and miners use the average since January 2020, when Bitcoin went onto their balance sheets. AI, quantum and U.S.-market stocks and funds use their trailing 200-week average over every year of their listed history — the S&P 500 fund's back to 1993 — so today's gap is ranked against the dot-com, 2007 and 2021 tops. A lifetime average does not work for them: an index that compounds for decades leaves its lifetime average further behind every year, so its newest stretch would always look like its most extreme. The name is the metaphor: price is treated as something that gets pulled back toward its average, and the score is how far it has climbed away from it.

Question 3

How do you read a Gravity Risk score?

Accepted Answer

0–25 — accumulation: near or below the long-run average. 25–50 — mid-cycle (mid-range on stock pages): moderately extended. 50–75 — late-cycle: well above average by its own history. 75–100 — cycle top (the top stretch on stock pages): at or near the most stretched it has been.

Question 4

What can a Gravity Risk score not tell you?

Accepted Answer

It is not a prediction, and it is not a signal to buy or sell. A high score can stay high for a long time, and an asset in a genuine growth phase will spend most of that phase above its lifetime average — that is what growth looks like on this measure. It is also backward-looking by construction: an asset with a short history has a short average, and the score is less meaningful for it. Read it as one input on where price sits relative to its own past, not as an answer. The reports also show the score in ten coarser bands, explained in Risk Level 1 to 10 .

What is a Gravity Risk score?

How is the Gravity Risk score calculated?

How do you read a Gravity Risk score?

What can a Gravity Risk score not tell you?

Other models explained