Wormhole against its 20-week moving average: risk level

W Risk Matrix

$0.0111 | Risk: 0.85

INDICATOR: 20-WEEK SMA
LAST UPDATE: 2026-11-09 16:55 UTC

📈 W Logarithmic Price vs Global Risk Bands

🎯 Algorithmic Risk Price Targets

Target Risk Level Required Price (USD)
Level 0.00 $-0.0147
Level 0.05 $-0.0131
Level 0.10 $-0.0116
Level 0.15 $-0.0101
Level 0.20 $-0.008574
Level 0.25 $-0.007053
Level 0.30 $-0.005532
Level 0.35 $-0.004011
Level 0.40 $-0.002490
Level 0.45 $-0.0009686
Level 0.50 $0.0005526
Level 0.55 $0.002074
Level 0.60 $0.003595
Level 0.65 $0.005116
Level 0.70 $0.006637
Level 0.75 $0.008158
Level 0.80 $0.009680
Level 0.85 $0.0112
Level 0.90 $0.0127
Level 0.95 $0.0142
Level 1.00 $0.0158

📊 Mathematical Methodology

Plot Interpretation: This scatter plot visualizes W's price relative to its 20-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA), represented by the dotted grey line. The underlying continuous price trend is visible in faint white, allowing you to toggle individual risk level overlays via the legend without losing structural context.

Risk Normalization (Winsorized): Risk levels are mathematically derived by measuring both the linear and proportional distance between the current price and the 20-week SMA. To prevent extreme flash-crashes (e.g., the March 2020 wick) from permanently distorting the scale, the algorithm uses Percentile Winsorization. We clip the absolute extremes at the 2nd and 98th percentiles, ensuring that structural multi-month cycle lows accurately map to deep-value zones (Risk 0.0).

Target Math: The Risk Table uses an exact algebraic reversal of the hybrid scale against today's 20-week SMA, calculating down to the dollar what W's price must hit today to trigger a specific risk rating.