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Supermicro (SMCI) research
Every model we publish for Supermicro — valuation, risk and forecast — regenerated daily from market data. Free, no account.
Supermicro key levels today
The headline figure from each of Supermicro's reports, as published today. Each comes from the report linked beside it.
| 200-week TWAP | $39.99 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| Gravity Risk (0-100) | 3.0 | TWAP / Gravity Risk |
| 200-week moving average | $40.04 | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Accumulation line (-1σ) | $33.60 | Valuation Bands |
| Valuation-band fair value | $47.05 | Valuation Bands |
| Distribution line (+1σ) | $65.88 | Valuation Bands |
| Detected market phase | Deep Capitulation (-2σ) | Valuation Bands |
| Moving-average risk score | 32.0% | 200-Week Moving Average Risk |
| Forecast base target | $33.56 (68% range $18.68 to $59.88) | Price Forecast |
Is Supermicro overvalued right now?
Supermicro trades 26% below its 200-week Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), with a Gravity Risk score of 3.0/100.
Where is Supermicro against its 200-week moving average?
Supermicro is 26.3% below its 200-week moving average of $40.04, at $29.50. Macro risk score 32.0%.
What are Supermicro's fair value, floor and ceiling?
Supermicro fair value $47.05; the phase detector reads Deep Capitulation (-2σ), 26.9% through the phase.
What does the model forecast for the Supermicro price?
Supermicro model base target $33.56 by May 16, 2027, with a 68% range of $18.68 to $59.88.
How does Supermicro's reading today compare with its own history?
Across the 45 daily readings published from 2026-09-04 to 2026-11-09, Supermicro's moving-average risk score ranged from 31.5 to 68.2 (32 today) and its phase completion ranged from 26.3% to 44.5% (26.9% today).
How does Supermicro's Gravity Risk compare with other AI infrastructure stocks?
Supermicro's Gravity Risk of 3 is the 2nd lowest of the 32 AI infrastructure stocks we track, against a median of 31.4. The lowest reading today is CoreWeave at 0 and the highest is Riskified at 98.3. By premium to its 200-week TWAP, 26% below, it is the 5th lowest of the 32, against a median of 40% above.